Pre-Season Power Rankings: Part 1
With the first week of pre-season in the books, it’s time for the first Power Rankings of the year. Here’s the bottom half of the league as I see it currently, though these rankings are sure to change as August rolls into September. At this point of the league year it’s tough to find much separation between the 20-25 middle-road teams. Other than the truly elite and truly awful teams, pre-season rankings really amount to how much the author likes each team’s young players, coach and QB. With that said, here is the bottom half of the league from my point of view:
17. Kansas City Chiefs – Put a top QB on the Chiefs and they are arguably an elite team. Their defense was fairly stout down the stretch last season and responded well to new coach Romeo Crennel. There is a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, assuming Tony Moeaki, Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry can return to form after missing last year with injuries. Unlike AFC West rivals Oakland and San Diego, Kansas City seems more likely to exceed expectations than to disappoint. If Brian Daboll can get a good season from Cassel (questionable given the track records of both Daboll and Cassel), the Chiefs could see double-digit wins and a division championship. Even if Cassel struggles, they might be able to squeak out 9 or 10 wins if their running game can perform to 2010 levels.
18. Tennessee Titans – The Titans, like the Bills, Chiefs and a few other teams, have a lot of nice pieces but it’s hard to project them to have a ton of success – though history tells us that one or more of the middle tier teams will put it all together and make a good run. Like those other teams, I can’t put them any higher than the middle of the pack due to their QB situation. Jake Locker is the future and probably a better bet than Matt Hasselbeck to lead the team to postseason glory but can he perform at the NFL level? The talent surrounding him is intriguing though it’s easy to be down on both Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt. Their defense has a good amount of talent despite not having many household names and the Titans could be well-balanced enough to make a run at their division if Locker can step up.
19. Buffalo Bills – Their front 7 is certainly talented, despite the horrendous contract given to Mark Anderson. The rest of the team is still lacking high-end talent and they are still led by Ryan Fitzpatrick and Chan Gailey. I don’t think 2012 will be the breakout year that Bills fans are hoping for, though 2nd place in the AFC East and an outside shot at the playoffs could be a possibility.
20. San Diego Chargers – With just about any other coach, the Chargers would have been higher up in my rankings. I just cannot take a Norv Turner coached team seriously. Especially a Norv Turner coached team with its worst talent level in a number of years. The Chargers are razor thin at a number of positions on both sides of the ball and are relying heavily on Ryan Mathews and Antonio Gates to stay healthy. The defense will need the plethora of recent high draft picks (Melvin Ingram, Kendall Reyes, Corey Luiget, Marcus Gilchrist et al) to step up for the Chargers to make a strong playoff run.
21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The Bucs should be better in 2012 if only because their coaching situation looks to be more stable (if not dramatically improved). It’s no secret that Raheem Morris was in over his head last year and that contributed to the team’s under-performance. They have a ton of young talent – on paper – and signing Vincent Jackson will help their offense quite a bit. Certainly, their skill positions look promising and the OL is solid enough to win. The real questions in Tampa Bay are: can Josh Freeman ever take the next step in his development and can Greg Schiano get his young talent to fulfill their promise?
22. Carolina Panthers – The Panthers offense again be a strong unit, though it’s likely the league will be better prepared for Cam Newton and the Carolina rushing attack. The OL has some question marks and the depth at WR can’t sustain a loss of Steve Smith (nor a decline in his production). That said, they should score a lot of points and be near the top of the league in yards. However, the defense – bad last year – hasn’t been improved enough to make the Panthers legitimate contenders. Adding Luke Kuechly is a nice start to rebuilding the team’s front 7 but there are still too many holes on D. The interior DL and CB spots are thin at best and the team will have to win a lot of shootouts to avoid a losing record.
23. Oakland Raiders – Carson Palmer is the epitome of a league-average QB. The Raiders are the epitome of a league average team talent-wise. Why are they so low in my power rankings? Simply put, I don’t see a lot of places for the Raiders to get unexpected production and chances are good that either Palmer implodes or Darren McFadden gets derailed by his seemingly yearly injury. They’re an 8-8 team (maybe 9-7 given their division) if everything goes right, but the guys they are relying upon have such troubling track records that it’s more likely than not that they underachieve relative to their talent level.
24. Indianapolis Colts – The Colts could be downright awful in 2012. However, their first pre-season game showed enough to think that there is also a chance that Indianapolis could be respectable this year. Forget the Andrew Luck hype and the over-the-top gushing over his first preseason game against an inept St. Louis team. What piqued my interest was the way Chuck Pagano had his defense playing. While the Rams’ OL is putrid, the key players on the Colts’ D look to have adapted to the new 3-4 look and even Jerry Hughes showed some potential as a pure rush linebacker. The young talent on offense is there and a good QB – which Luck seems poised to be right from the start – can make up for a lot of shortcomings. Luck’s biggest challenge will be surviving with a very questionable OL in front of him.
25. Arizona Cardinals – The NFL is a passing league and it’s tough to think of a team with a worse QB situation. Neither John Skelton nor Kevin Kolb seem like good enough passers to keep the Cardinals offense moving and the team’s running game simply isn’t able to compensate for their lack of a quality signal caller. Their defense, both young and promising, should help them stay in games and could keep them from a truly terrible season. Outside of a soft 4 game stretch from weeks 4-7, the Cardinals have a tough schedule. It would be surprising if they won more than 7 games and they have the potential to end up drafting top 5 in 2013.
26. New York Jets – The Jets seem like a team destined for collapse. Their defense has little depth outside of their DE spot and the offense is a mess. They fancy themselves a “ground and pound” offense but Shonn Greene is both mediocre and too soft for the style of offense Rex Ryan likes to employ. The QB situation has been much discussed, but neither Mark Sanchez nor Tim Tebow are good enough to win in the NFL without the defense carrying the team. If the Jets D stays healthy and Stephen Hill can hit the ground running, the Jets can probably hover around .500. But they are one or two injuries away from a 4-12 type of season.
27. Miami Dolphins – Ryan Tannehill looked good in his first pre-season action, but it’s hard to find a team with less talent on offense than Miami. Their WR’s, TE’s and RB’s are all in the bottom third of the league and probably in the bottom 5 at each position. Conversely, their defense is pretty solid and their schedule is somewhat favorable. 8-8 is probably their absolute upside if their defense can steal some games for them.
28. Cleveland Browns – I’m a bit more bullish on Brandon Weeden than many (though his first pre-season game didn’t really do much to inspire) but I’m not at all sold on the rest of the Browns talent on offense. Trent Richardson should help but the rest of the talent on offense is below average. Greg Little was a drop machine last year and supplemental draft pick Josh Gordon is unlikely to make a big impact early on. The defense has lost Chris Gocong from an already-thin LB grouping and Joe Haden is facing a 4 game suspension. It looks like another tough year in Cleveland.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars – Blaine Gabbert has a lot to prove this year after a horrific 2011 season. He has some decent pieces to work with on offense but a shaky OL which wasn’t improved enough in the offseason. The Jaguars D put up decent numbers last year but it is tough to see them repeating a top 10 year on that side of the ball given their tougher schedule and lack of top-end talent. 38th overall pick Andre Branch looks promising and the Jaguars have enough pieces to surprise some people if Gabbert can find his footing as a starting QB in the NFL. Mike Mularkey was a questionable choice as a coach and might not get too many years to turn around the franchise.
30. Washington Redskins – Robert Griffin III will give the Redskins something to watch every week, but the rest of the team needs more talent before the Redskins are ready to compete in the NFC East. They have enough decent players on both sides of the ball to think that they could exceed expectations with some luck. However, a rookie QB with a limited supporting cast can only do so much – especially against one of the league’s toughest schedules. The Redskins probably won’t play as poorly as their final record might suggest.
31. Minnesota Vikings – Barring a phenomenal year from Christian Ponder, it is hard to see how the Vikings can win more than 6 games. While Jared Allen and Adrian Peterson are amongst the game’s best players, the supporting cast is decidedly sub-par. They are riddled with holes on both sides of the ball and unlike many other bad teams from 2011, Minnesota didn’t do much to improve their roster. Matt Kalil should help solidify their line but it’s unlikely that the rest of their draft picks will be enough to get Minnesota out of the division’s cellar.
32. St. Louis Rams – Jeff Fisher will get his guys to play hard and compete, but there is still a significant lack of talent on the roster. The OLB and S spots are in bad shape and the team’s OL is amongst the worst in the league. There are a number of promising young players, but the Rams will lose a lot of games in 2012. They look like a team which will start to build some momentum late in the year as young players start to develop and find their footing in Fisher’s scheme.
Quick Hit: Top Rookie RB’s Workloads
With all 32 back in camp, much attention will be paid to the rookie class of 2012 and their ability to contribute this year. One position where rookies can immediately step in and make an impact is the RB spot. While rookies tend to get worked in slowly at many positions – QB, WR, LB to name a few – rookie RB’s are often thrust into starting spots or given big part-time roles. Here are the top 25 all time heaviest workloads by percentage of their team’s rushing offense for rookie RB’s:
Since 1970, 54 RB’s have had 50% or more of their team’s rushing attempts, though only 4 (Edgerrin James, LaDanian Tomlinson, Curtis Martin and Eric Dickerson) had more than 75%.
Perhaps a sign of the weakness of the 2011 crop of rookies, or the league-wide shift to RB rotations, only 9 2011 rookies had more than 10% of their team’s total rushing attmepts:
Chances are, 2012 rookie Trent Richardson will easily surpass 2011 rookie leader DeMarco Murray’s 40.2% of Dallas’ rushes. The other early picks, Doug Martin, David Wilson, Isaiah Pead and LaMichael James all figure to be in rotational or situational roles and none are good bets to top the 50% mark barring injury to their team’s other RB’s.
1980’s Forgotten 1st Rounders: QB’s
The 1980’s produced a number of good QB’s, many of which were found in the opening round of the draft. The 10 drafts from 1980-1989 produced 2 of the best QB’s in the history of the game – Dan Marino (27th overall, 1983, Miami Dolphins) and John Elway (1st overall, 1983, Baltimore Colts), as well as two guys who have strong arguments for being in the top 10-15 all time: Jim Kelly (14th overall, 1983, Buffalo Bills) and Troy Aikman (1st overall, 1989, Dallas Cowboys). These 4 combined for a record of 490-305-1, with 29 Pro Bowl Appearances and 13 trips to the Super Bowl. The other 14 QB’s drafted in the 1980’s weren’t nearly as successful, though Ken O’Brien (24th overall, 1983, New York Jets), Vinny Testaverde (1st overall, 1987, Tampa Bay Buccaneers) and Jim Everett (3rd overall, 1986, Houston Oilers) had their share of success over careers of varying length.
As with any series of drafters, there were plenty of duds to go along with the Canton bound signal callers. Kelly Stouffer (6th overall, 1987, St. Louis Cardinals) was perhaps the biggest huge flop. While 1987 was one of the weaker 1st rounds in history, nothing can put a good spin on Stouffer’s level of failure. First he held out and forced his way out of St. Louis, then was traded to the Seattle Seahawks and then (after one brief moment of glory in his first ever NFL game) played about as poorly as any QB can in the NFL. His career ended with a 5-11 record, 7 TD, 19 INT and a QB Rating of 54.5. Stouffer’s ineptness was rivaled or, perhaps, surpassed by that of Chuck Long (1986, 12th overall, Detroit Lions), Art Schlichter (1982, 4th overall, Baltimore Colts), Todd Blackledge (7th overall, 1983, Kansas City Chiefs) and Rich Campbell (6th overall, Green Bay Packers, 1981).
However, those guys were mostly remembered either for their huge success or huge failure on the biggest possible stage. While Ken O’Brien and Jim Everett might not be familiar names for younger NFL fans, chances are anyone who followed football in the 1980’s and early 1990’s remembers them as guys who were (at the time) regarded as decent-to-good (though inconsistent) starting QB’s who you never really wanted calling signals for your team despite their moderate success (see: Pennington, Chad for a more modern example). While O’Brien and Everett (best remembered for blowing up in an interview with Jim Rome on TV) are somewhat memorable players, even in a “you had to be there” way, the following guys you might not remember at all unless they played for your team (from most to least memorable):
Jim Harbaugh (26th overall, 1987, Chicago Bears) – Harbaugh might be a guy you know, or have heard of (depending on when you started following football). After all, he played 14 seasons and was a starter for 10 of those years. However, his pedestrian numbers and career mediocrity might have led you to forget that he was a fairly hyped 1st round pick once upon a time ago. His brilliant season in 1995 with the Indianapolis Colts (coming just inches away from a trip to a Super Bowl) was one of the top passing seasons of that decade. However, the rest of his career was totally forgettable. Only 3 times in his career did he lead his team to a winning record in his starts (1990,1991,1995).
Jim McMahon (26th overall, 1982, Chicago Bears) – The guy whom Harbaugh was drafted to replace, Jim McMahon is probably best remembered for his sweatband and babysitting the offense that played alongside one of the greatest defenses in modern football history. Like Harbaugh, McMahon played for a deceptively long time – all the way until 1996. He appeared in 120 games in a 15 year, 6 team career. However, he only played in more than 10 games in 5 seasons. Injuries, mental mistakes and bouts of wildness made McMahon a guy who always found himself a starting job but never holding it for a full season. In 15 years, his highest single season passing total was just 2392 yards (his Super Bowl winning 1985 season). His longevity and the success of the Bears’ defense in the mid 80’s saved McMahon from total irrelevancy.
Chris Miller (13th overall, 1987, Atlanta Falcons) – He had a brief period of success in the Falcons 1991 playoff run and his injury shortened 1992 season (in which he was leading the league in QB rating before getting hurt). Other than that, Chris Miller is one of the most forgettable QB’s of the late 1980’s/early 90’s. He played for 10 years, started 92 games but won only 34. A career 54.6 completion % and 74.9 rating.
Tony Eason (15th overall, 1983, New England Patriots) – The 1983 draft produced 3 of the very best QB’s ever (Elway, Marino and Kelly). Tony Eason was drafted one spot after Kelly and 12 before Marino (with Ken O’Brien in between). At first, he looked like he was going to follow in his class of 83’s footsteps. In his first year as a full time starter, 1984, he put up a very impressive 93.4 QB Rating. Only Marino and Joe Montana were better. Unfortunately, 1985 wasn’t kind to Eason – he put up a very poor 67.5 QBR despite leading the Patriots to the Super Bowl. His performance in the Super Bowl, even considering the quality of the Bears’ defense, was nothing short of appalling (so bad that he was benched early on in the game). He rebounded in 1986, going 10-4 as a starter with a QBR of 89.2 (4th best int he NFL). The Patriots era of bad luck, putrid play and sheer incompetence began in Eason’s lost 1987 season. Their franchise QB separated his shoulder, then suffered nerve damage in his elbow as a result of wearing his sling too tightly. He would go on to miss almost all of 1987 and 1988 and was traded to the Jets in 1989. He started just 10 games after his successful 1986 campaign.
Marc Wilson (15th overall, 1980, Oakland Raiders) – Even in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s, the Oakland Raiders were known to be poor at their early round draft selections (Marcus Allen aside) on the occasions when they actually used them (even then, they liked to trade their 1st round picks away). Marc Wilson was drafted to be the long term replacement for the aging Ken Stabler. Seeing how you’ve probably forgotten (or never heard of) Wilson, it follows that he never became the franchise guy that Al Davis had hoped. Somehow, he managed to stick around with the Raiders for 8 years – far longer than most 1st round flops. He only started 8+ games in 4 seasons and in every one of those 4, he threw more INT’s than TD’s. He had a brief tour with the Patriots in 1989-1990, easy to forget given how terrible those teams were, before retiring in anonymity in 1991.
Mark Malone (28th overall, 1980, Pittsburgh Steelers) – If you watched ESPN for football coverage in the 1990’s, you might remember Malone. Otherwise, you might have forgotten all about him, even if you were a die hard football fan in the 1980’s. Like many mid-late 1st round QB flops, Malone kicked around the league for longer than he should have. Somehow, he ended up playing in 73 games over 9 seasons. His career 50.9 completion %, 60 TDs to 81 INT and 61.9 QBR
tell you everything you need to know about Malone if you had forgotten him like just about everyone outside of Pittsburgh.
Make Or Break: Early 2009 Draftees On The Bubble
Training camp is less than a month away and for the draft class of 2009, it’s now or never. The general wisdom is that draft picks get 3 years to establish themselves (though many picks get far less time, if they’re taken outside of the top 2 rounds or happen to get drafted by a team who doesn’t mind cutting high picks early). After 3 years, if a 1st or 2nd rounder hasn’t panned out, they become a training camp casualty. Sometimes a team can find a trade partner who is willing to take on a former high pick for the cost of a very low or conditional draft pick. Such was the case with 2009 4th overall pick Aaron Curry. The former “safest pick in the draft” was unloaded by Seattle after just 35 games and less than 3 full seasons.
Curry isn’t alone in being cast aside as an early 2009 draft pick. Here are some other high picks who have already been dumped:
11th overall – LB Aaron Maybin (Buffalo Bills)
36th overall – WR Brian Robiskie (Cleveland Browns)
37th overall – CB Alphonso Smith (Denver Broncos)
41st overall – CB Darius Butler (New England Patriots)
43rd overall – DE Everette Brown (Carolina Panthers)
44th overall – QB Pat White (Miami Dolphins)
48th overall – DB Darcel McBath (Denver Broncos)
52nd overall – LB David Veikune (Cleveland Browns)
63rd overall – LB Cody Brown (Arizona Cardinals)
64th overall – TE Richard Quinn (Denver Broncos)
11 of the top 64 players have already exited the league or changed teams, and chances are good that there will be at least 10 more guys in that category by the time 53 man rosters are set in early September. Here are some guys who could be joining the list:
2nd overall – OT Jason Smith (St. Louis Rams) – He hasn’t locked down a starting spot on either side of the line and has been inconsistent at best. It would be a mild surprise to see him let go, but Jeff Fisher and Les Snead have no connection to the drafting of Smith and might decide to move on.
12th overall – RB Knowshon Moreno (Denver Broncos) – The Broncos have already jettisoned 3 Top 64 picks from 2009 and Moreno should make 4. While he has some redeeming qualities, notably his above average blitz blocking, he has shown that he’s a total dud as a feature back. At best, he’s a 3rd down back and rotational guy and one would think his time in Denver is short.
16th overall – OLB Larry English (San Diego Chargers) – Drafted as a pass rushing specialist, he has just 7 sacks in 3 seasons. With the addition of 2012 first round pick Melvin Ingram, the Chargers are likely ready to move on from English barring a superb training camp.
23rd overall – OT Michael Oher (Baltimore Ravens) – While he is the only 2009 1st rounder to have a Hollywood feature film made about him, Oher has been a big disappointment. At times he flashes the type of talent that made him a 1st round pick. At other times, he looks either disinterested or totally lost. It’s likely he will stick in Baltimore for another year, but he might not be around much longer than that.
24th overall – DT Peria Jerry (Atlanta Falcons) – 6 games started and just 2 sacks in 3 seasons with the Falcons, Jerry faces an uphill battle to make the Atlanta roster. New Defensive Coordinator Mike Nolan hasn’t committed (publicly) to either a 3-4 or a 4-3 scheme, but a 3-4 would almost certainly seal Jerry’s fate in Atlanta. Regardless of scheme, it’s a good possibility that Jerry will be playing elsewhere in 2012.
39th overall – OT Eben Britton (Jacksonville Jaguars) – He’s been hurt a lot early in his career, plying in just 10 games over the last 2 years. When he’s on the field he isn’t anything special. The Jaguars don’t have a ton of depth at the position, so it’s possible that he could stick even with a poor camp. However, he will need to get healthy and show some progress if he wants to stick in the league.
40th overall – DT Ron Brace (New England Patriots) – Brace has been hurt off and on with a number of small injuries and has found himself in coach Bill Belichick’s doghouse at several different points (including being inactive for this year’s Super Bowl). When he’s on the field, he has shown flashes of being a quality 5-technique DE but his inconsistencies and lack of durability have led to him getting passed on the depth chart. Belichick doesn’t keep guys around who don’t produce, and has already pulled the plug on Darius Butler (taken one pick after Brace). It would be a mild surprise if Brace breaks camp with the Patriots.
45th overall – LB Clint Sintim (New York Giants) – Sintim is coming off a torn ACL and has yet to establish himself in New York’s LB corps. He was almost totally nonexistent his first two seasons before tearing his knee up last summer. Some Giants fans remain high on him, but like Britton and Brace, he will need to prove he is both healthy and taking a step forward in order to secure a roster spot.
50th overall – WR Mohamed Massaquoi (Cleveland Browns) -The best thing to happen to Mohammed Massaquoi’s young career is the Browns passing on a WR in the first (or a top WR in free agency) and waiting until the 4th round to address the position. The Cleveland WR depth chart is thin enough for the underwhelming Massaquoi to have plenty of reps and get a long look in camp. While he isn’t terrible, he’s also not lived up to his status as a mid 2nd round pick. He will probably hang on for another year in Cleveland, though he might not have survived this long with a different team.
LaDainian Tomlinson’s Career: Inside the Numbers
There is little doubt that recently retired RB LaDainian Tomlinson will be a Hall of Famer – probably on the first ballot. Here’s a quick look at the numbers Tomlinson piled up in his outstanding 11 year career:
| All Time RB Rank | ||
|---|---|---|
| Attempts | 3174 | 5th |
| Yards | 13684 | 5th |
| YPA | 4.31 | 34th |
| Rush TD | 145 | 2nd |
| Receptions | 624 | 3rd |
| Yards | 4722 | 15th |
| YPC | 7.57 | 86th |
| Fumbles | 30 | |
| Fumble % | 1% |
Overall, a very impressive and Canton worthy resume. His 30 career fumbles is 10th best for RB’s with 1000+ carries and his 1% fumble rate is the 2nd best all time for a RB (Curtis Martin is #1) with 1500+ touches. His single-season TD record (31), set in 2006, is impressive. Though the record was set 4 times in the 7 season from 2000 and 2006 (Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander and Tomlinson), it seems unlikely that it will be topped for awhile. The league has moved so far away from “feature” backs that it is tough to imagine a RB getting enough touches to get 32+ TD’s in a single season. Of the backs in the league, dual threats like Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew or Matt Forte could make a run at the record, maybe Adrian Peterson if he recovers from knee surgery. But otherwise, it seems that Tomlinson will hold the record for the foreseeable future.
Similarly, Tomlinson’s place as 5th overall in NFL history in career rushing yards might not be challenged for awhile. Tomlinson ended his career with 13,684 rushing yards. The leading active rusher is the currently unemployed Thomas Jones with 10,591 yards (22nd all time). At 33 years old and nothing more than a part timer, if he even suits up in 2012, Jones won’t top Tomlinson. Behind Jones is Steven Jackson at 9,093 yards. At 28 years old, it’s possible for Jackson to end up in the top 5 all-time. To do that, Jackson would have to do something most late 20’s and early 30’s RB’s don’t – stay healthy and highly productive.
Tomlinson’s place in history is secure. There are few arguments to be made that he isn’t one of the top 10 RB’s in the Super Bowl era. However, how highly should we regard Tomlinson’s career? While he’s the best RB to come out of the 2000’s, it was an era with few feature backs and fewer guys who were capable of dominance. Compared to the other elite backs in the Super Bowl era, Tomlinson stacks up well – but his stats don’t exhibit the consistent dominance you’d expect from a guy whom some consider the greatest of all time
One way to measure a RB’s success is by using YPC+ – a measure of his yards per carry relative to the league average. After all, a 1200 yard season isn’t impressive if that RB averages 3.2 yards per carry in an era where the league average is 4.4 YPC. It’s easy for people to get a bit blinded by gaudy yardage stats without taking into account yards per carry. For example, Cedric Benson ran for 1,111 yards in 2010 – good for 13th best in the league. But his meager 3.5 YPC was 42nd out of 46 RB’s who had 100+ carries. Benson ended up with a YPC+ of just 83, or 17% worse than league average. From that point of view, his “good year” looks pretty bad.
Here are the Top 10 rushing yardage leaders since 1970 YPC+:
| Name | Avg | Yrs | High | Low | 110+ | 115+ | Consec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barry Sanders | 127 | 10 | 154 | 108 | 10 | 8 | 10 |
| Walter Payton | 108 | 13 | 144 | 87 | 10 | 3 | 5 |
| Eric Dickerson | 106 | 11 | 139 | 82 | 8 | 3 | 8 |
| Marcus Allen | 103 | 16 | 117 | 93 | 9 | 2 | 2 |
| Emmitt Smith | 103 | 15 | 135 | 68 | 9 | 3 | 5 |
| Franco Harris | 102 | 13 | 137 | 63 | 7 | 3 | 2 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 102 | 11 | 125 | 78 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Curtis Martin | 99 | 11 | 111 | 84 | 6 | 0 | 2 |
| Jerome Bettis | 97 | 13 | 125 | 79 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Edgerrin James | 96 | 11 | 113 | 65 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| Average | 104 | 12 | 130 | 81 | 7 | 3 | 4 |
As you can see, Tomlinson’s 102 YPC+ is good for 7th best of this group. However, his longest streak of consecutive 100+ YPC seasons was 3 and he only had 2 115+ seasons. He also had the 2nd fewest 100+ YPC seasons (less than half of his seasons in the league). Now, his receiving ability and use out of the backfield gives him a dual-threat aspect that some other top RB’s didn’t have.
Here is that same group of RB’s by their career receiving averages:
| Career Averages | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Rec | Yds | YPC | TD |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 57 | 434 | 7.8 | 2 |
| Curtis Martin | 44 | 303 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Edgerrin James | 39 | 306 | 7.6 | 1 |
| Walter Payton | 38 | 349 | 9.2 | 1 |
| Marcus Allen | 37 | 338 | 9.2 | 1 |
| Barry Sanders | 35 | 292 | 8.4 | 1 |
| Emmitt Smith | 34 | 215 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Eric Dickerson | 26 | 194 | 7.6 | 1 |
| Franco Harris | 24 | 176 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Jerome Bettis | 15 | 111 | 7.3 | 0 |
Tomlinson leads the way with an average of 57 catches per year, though his 7.8 YPC is behind Payton, Allen and Sanders.
Lastly, here are the RB’s career offensive averages, rushes and receptions combined:
| All Purpose | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Touch | Yds | YPA | TD |
| Barry Sanders | 341 | 1819 | 5.33 | 11 |
| Walter Payton | 333 | 1636 | 4.91 | 10 |
| Marcus Allen | 226 | 1103 | 4.89 | 9 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 345 | 1678 | 4.86 | 15 |
| Eric Dickerson | 298 | 1400 | 4.70 | 9 |
| Edgerrin James | 315 | 1419 | 4.51 | 8 |
| Franco Harris | 250 | 1108 | 4.42 | 8 |
| Emmitt Smith | 328 | 1439 | 4.38 | 12 |
| Curtis Martin | 364 | 1585 | 4.36 | 9 |
| Jerome Bettis | 283 | 1162 | 4.11 | 7 |
Only 3 RB’s since 1970 have produced more yards per touch than Tomlinson. As a pure rusher, I wouldn’t put Tomlinson in the top 5 of the modern era. However, as an overall RB, he is definitely one of the most productive and most talented that the league has ever seen.
Forgotten First Rounders: 2000
The 2000 draft, like most years, was a bit of a mixed bag but overall a fairly weak class. The two best players, by far, were separated by 100 picks: 9th overall Brian Urlacher and 199th overall Tom Brady. There were a number of high quality players taken in between, including 3 Jets: Shaun Ellis (12th), John Abraham (13th), Julian Peterson (16th), Shaun Alexander (19th), Chad Clifton (44th), Laveraneus Coles (78th) and former All-Pros Adalius Thomas (186th) and Mike Brown (39th). There were also a number of notable (and high profile) flops, especially in the “no-man’s land” of the late 1st round: Sylvester Morris (21st), Chris McIntosh (22nd), Rashard Anderson (23rd) and R.Jay Soward (29th) were all out of the league by the end by the end of 2001 due to injuries or legal problems.
And, like all years, there were a handful of guys taken in the 1st round that you have either forgotten about, never known about or would be otherwise surprised to think of as 1st rounders. Here are a few:
Travis Taylor – WR – 10th overall – Baltimore Ravens
Even those of us who remember Taylor beyond just being vaguely familiar with the name would probably be surprised to learn that he played in 101 career games with 90 starts before washing out of the league in 2007. In no way was he worth a top 10 pick, but as far as 1st round picks go he is probably middle of the road in terms of production. His career best year was 2002 when he had 61 catches for 869 yards and 6 TD’s.
Ron Dayne – RB – 11th overall – New York Giants
Anyone who followed college football or the NFL draft in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s knows how hyped Dayne was. 5’10 and 250+ lbs, he was thought to be a real-life version of Tecmo Bowl’s Christian Okoye and ended up more like a poor man’s real life version of Christian Okoye. In Dayne’s 4 years with the Giants, he averaged a pitiful 3.5 yards per carry, despite getting ample opportunities to establish himself as the #1 guy in New York. He enjoyed a brief late-career resurgence in Houston in 2006-07 and has been mostly forgotten ever since. Despite going 11th overall, the 2000 running back class didn’t offer much after Dayne came off the board. Only Shaun Alexander and Mike Anderson were high quality players. Sammy Morris and Reuben Droughns stuck around awhile as HB/FB hybrids and carved out nice niches for themselves.
Erik Flowers – DE/LB – 26th overall – Buffalo Bills
I didn’t understand it at the time and I still don’t. Flowers had no business going in the top 50, let alone late 1st round. He played just 2 years with the Bills as a failed pass-rusher, bounced around for a few years and was out of the league after 2004.
Trung Canidate – RB – 31st overall – St. Louis Rams
The Rams have had a whole lot of forgettable 1st rounders and Canidate might be the worst of them all, In 3 highly forgettable years with the Rams, he rushed for 495 yards (441 of which came in his 2nd season). He was an Al Davis special – blazing fast but with no real football ability. Reportedly, the Rams had timed him running the 40 yard dash in the 4.2 – 4.3 range pre-draft and thought his speed would be impossible to contain on the (then) Astroturf of the Rams’ dome. Somehow, they swindled the Redskins into giving up a 4th round pick for Canidate. He looked like he might be on the path to realizing his potential, starting 10 games with the Redskins and racking up 600 yards with a respectable 4.2 YPC, However, a fairly severe foot injury and the 2004 acquisition of Clinton Portis ended Canidate’s time in Washington and he never got a chance elsewhere.
Forgotten First Rounders: 2001
It’s been over a decade since the 2001 draft – a pretty decent crop of players. Outside of controversial (both in terms of off-field activity and on-field value) QB and 1st overall pick Michael Vick, the 2001 first round also netted some soon-to-be Hall of Famers and some guys who have an outside chance of making the HOF: LaDanian Tomlinson, Justin Smith, Richard Seymour, Steve Hutchinson and Reggie Wayne. Other notable 2001 first rounders include Andre Carter, Casey Hampton, Jeff Backus, Leonard Davis, Todd Heap, Deuce McAllister, Marcus Stroud and Santana Moss. In 2011, an impressive 16 of the 31 1st rounders were still active 11 seasons after being drafted (Vick, Tomlinson, Smith, Seymour, Hutchinson, Wayne, Hampton, Carter, Backus, Davis, Moss, Heap, Gerard Warren, Nate Clements, Ryan Pickett and Will Allen). The last 4 might not have lived up to their 1st round hype (and might have been considered busts by their original drafting team’s fans) but all 4 have survived and played well at times (and struggled at others).
Still, as with any 1st round, there were big time busts – David Terrell and Jamal Reynolds atop that list. 9th overall pick Koren Robinson never lived up to his (inexplicable) pre-draft hype though he contributed enough (barely) to escape true bust status. But between the long-lasting stars and journeymen and the epic flops, there are always the forgotten. Here are a few of the guys who – like this year’s crop of 1st rounders – fans were anxious to see suit up in their first training camps in the summer of 2001 but failed to make much of an impression:
Damione Lewis – DT- 12th Overall – St. Louis Rams:
Somehow, Lewis stuck around for a decade (last active in 2010 for Houston) as a backup and rotational DT. He didn’t make it past his rookie contract in St. Louis, starting just 29 of 69 games with the Rams. Only 3 times in his career did he start more than 8 games (2004,2008,2009). The Rams took 2 DT’s in the first (Lewis and Pickett) and missed the mark both times. Between their 2 picks, the Jaguars took Stroud. The next 2 DT’s after Pickett (29th overall): Kris Jenkins and Shaun Rogers. One has to wonder if the Greatest Show On Turf could have pulled off another Super Bowl win with one of those other DT’s anchoring their interior DL
Rod Gardner – WR – 15th Overall – Washington Redskins
Gardner is a great example of a guy who looked better on paper than he did on the field. His first season with Washington, he racked up 741 yards on 46 catches – an impressive 16.1 YPC. His 2nd season, he hauled in 71 receptions for 1006 yards. After that though, things went downhill. He caught 59 passes in his 3rd year and 51 in his 4th. If this were 2004 and we only had his stats to go by, we’d probably think he was a fairly useful NFL WR with a solid career ahead of him. However, after his 4 years in Washington (61 games started, 227 catches, 2997 yards, 22 TD’s), Gardner went on to play in just 26 more games and caught only 15 more passes. Watching Gardner in his first (best) two seasons, it was apparent he wasn’t the player that his somewhat impressive stats made him out to be. He just happened to be the best WR on two teams with terrible receiving corps (former 1st round mediocrity Michael Westrbook started opposite Gardner in 2001 and undrafted Derrius Thompson in 2002).
Adam Arcuhleta – S – 20th Overall – St. Louis Rams
Speaking of what could have been with the Greatest Show on Turf – Rams fans are probably apathetic over their recollection of Archuleta. The once promising DB was taken by St. Louis between their two underwhelming DT’s. As with Pickett and Lewis, Archuleta didn’t stick past his rookie contract and, while he outperformed the pair of DT’s, he didn’t last long enough with the team to be a true cornerstone player. He had a good start to his career, including piling up 102 tackles in 2002. However, after signing what was at the time the largest free agent contract ever for a safety with the (who else) Washington Redskins, Archuleta’s career tanked and he was out of the league 2 years later. A fairly traditional strong safety, and former college linebacker, Archuleta couldn’t adapt to the new pass-friendly NFL and back injuries didn’t help his coverage abilities.
Willie Middlebrooks – DB – 24th overall – Denver Broncos
Middlebrooks belongs in the “total bust” category, but he’s a guy who was taken low enough in the 1st round to not be a truly memorable flop. He didn’t have a ton of hype coming out of college. He wasn’t a huge reach or interesting story. He was just a pretty good college prospect who never panned out. 56 games played in 5 seasons and only 2 games started. His first 3 years in Denver, he played in 39 games with 6 tackles, 1 pass defensed and 0 INT’s.
Freddie Mitchell – WR – 25th overall – Philadelphia Eagles
“Fred-Ex” is only remembered for his brash personality and pre-Super Bowl antics. On-field, he was useless. He ended his brief 4 year career with 90 catches for 1263 yards in 63 games. 5 picks later, the Colts drafted Reggie Wayne. Chad Ochocinco went 11 picks later.
Jamar Fletcher – DB – 26th overall – Miami Dolphins
Fletcher is one of those guys who was useful at times, but never really a good player outside of special teams. He bounced around as a kick coverage guy and backup DB – playing for 5 teams in 8 years. He did managed to play in 105 games, though only started 12.
Michael Bennett – 27th overall – Minnesota Vikings
Bennett is a guy who I thought of a few times in the run-up to the 2012 draft. Like some of this year’s fringe 1st round RB’s (or guys who were being graded as late 1st-2nd round prospects), he was a guy with explosiveness and elusiveness but questions about his durability and overall skill set. Foot and knee injuries derailed his career in his 3rd season, but his first 2 years were impressive as a speed back in Minnesota’s Randy Moss/Daunte Culpepper era offense. His 2002 campaign saw him put up 255 carries for 1296 yards – an impressive 5.1 YPC. He stuck around for parts of 10 seasons but only played in 16 games twice (2002 and 2005) and never came close to replicating his early success after his 3rd season.
Derrick Gibson – 28th overall – Oakland Raiders
Just one of many Raiders 1st round picks in the 2000’s who failed to pan out. Gibson was a forgettable safety who started less than half of the games he played in Oakland and was out of the league after 5 marginal seasons.
The Patriots’ Wes Welker Conundrum
While the image of Wes Welker dropping what most likely would have been a Super Bowl clinching catch just 3 and half months ago is probably still seared into the minds of Patriots (and Giants) fans, there are plenty of reasons to think that Welker will be in a position this year to atone for his drop (on an admittedly tough, but catchable, pass). After all, the Patriots have only gotten stronger on offense and their secondary has nowhere to go but up. Chances are good that Welker and the Patriots will be once again playing big games in January and, perhaps, February of 2013. However, what happens to the diminutive WR after that is a mystery.
Currently, Welker is franchise tagged and (unlike teammate Logan Mankins) decided that signing his franchise tender and getting into camp on time was a good way to ensure a good season and a potentially lucrative extension. Welker has reportedly turned down a 2 year, $18M contract which was rumored to have been fully guaranteed. Presumably, he is looking for a longer deal. The question is: is Wes Welker really worth re-signing for more than 2 years? If Tom Brady had his way, Welker would probably ride off into the sunset with Brady and Belichick in 3-4 years after winning another Lombardi trophy. While some Pats fans might not want to admit it for fear of sullying their image of Belichick the cold-hearted mastermind, Brady’s desires probably do have a little clout in the minds of Belichick and player personnel man Nick Caserio. After all, Tom Brady is not a QB who finds (or can create) chemistry with the average receiver – despite making plenty of average receivers look pretty good. Part of the Pats’ struggles to develop a young WR have come from Brady not trusting anyone other than Welker, Branch and his young TE’s. Keeping Brady happy is certainly a selling point for Welker and there is no denying that, with the exception of that one (very memorable and significant) pass in February, no one works as well with Brady as Welker does. In fact, were it not for the Brady/Welker chemistry, it is likely – or even probable – that this would be Welker’s swan song in Foxboro. As it is, he’s likely to end up with a contract extension in New England at some point between now and September of 2013.
The problem the Patriots have, and it’s a certainty that their front office knows it, is that Welker is small, takes a lot of vicious hits over the course of the year and is at the point of his career where small WR’s break down rapidly. Take a look at the yearly reception totals of the top 15 non-Welker WR’s 5’10 or shorter since 1990:
How many of those guys were worth big money after the age of 32 (which Welker will reach in 2013)? Mason, certainly. Steve Smith likely. The rest? Not so much. While Mason lasted forever and Smith looks to still be highly productive consider this:
Touches (receptions, rushes, punt returns, kick returns) through age 30:
Derrick Mason – 737
Steve Smith – 891
Wes Welker – 1063
Welker has 326 more touches than Mason did by the time each receiver got through their age 30 season. Even the 172 touch differential between Welker and Smith is nearly 2 full seasons worth.
None of this is to say that Welker cannot be productive beyond the next two years. However, most Patriots fans can attest to the fact that he gets knocked around pretty badly through the course of the season. As did Wayne Chrebet, whose style was more similar to Welker’s than Mason or Smith (the latter two being more frequently used on the perimeter than Welker). He disappeared into oblivion quickly due to injuries and concussion problems. Like running backs, small WR’s tend to age very poorly and the Patriots’ (well deserved) reputation for preferring to get rid of guys a year too early rather than a year too late seems to indicate that they will hesitate to keep Tom Brady’s security blanket in town for too many years.
Pick 256 