Goodbye 2011 Season. Combine Here We Come.
(Originally posted by me at Mocking The Draft)
The 2011 NFL season is just about in the books. There are a few loose ends to be tied up – the Giants parade, a few coaching/assistant vacancies, retirements, etc, – but for all intents and purposes we are ready to kick off the 2012 offseason. For many of us (especially those of us reading an NFL-draft themed website) the offseason is nearly (equally?) as exciting as the regular season. The first stop is the NFL Scouting Combine in just over two weeks. While some of us will be watching each and every drill and keeping our eyes and ears open for draft-related rumblings, others will just pay attention to the big daily headlines. Here are some things to watch:
1. The top of the DL class. Unlike in some recent years, there is no consensus Top 5 pick DL on the board. There are two guys – LSU’s Michael Brockers and North Carolina’s Quinton Coples – who have very high upside but question marks. Brockers, a redshirt sophomore, is thought to have elite upside but is very raw. Coples is a bit of an enigma, flashing top-end skills at times and disappearing at other times. In a draft class short on 5-techniques, and a league shifting more and more to 3-4 base schemes, both Coples and Brockers could draw a lot of interest early. It’s possible 4-3 teams take an interest in both guys, Brockers is probably atop the list of 3-techniques in the draft and Coples could play DE in some 4-3 schemes. After those guys, Devon Still, Dontari Poe, and others are looking to jump into the top half of the 1st round.
2. The WR class in general. If there’s a position which has a lot of moving and shaking in terms of draft stock at the combine, it’s the receivers. Can Alshon Jeffery run well and prove some of his naysayers wrong about his athleticism and speed? Can Michael Floyd interview well and show better-than-expected fluidity in drills? Is Kendall Wright really as impressive athletically as a lot of people are starting to think? Moving beyond the top tier of receivers, the Combine could help shape the 2nd tier of WR’s. This draft is loaded with speedy, dynamic playmakers: Jarius Wright, Joe Adams, T.Y. Hilton to name a few. Not to mention some bigger guys who could boost their stock with good 40 times: Juron Criner, Rueben Randle, Mohamed Sanu. This is a class which will be very deep in WR prospects and a superlative Combine showing can theoretically make a WR a lot of money. Conversely, with so many good prospects, a bad combine could cause a WR to slip a lot.
3. The “other” QB’s: Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill, Nick Foles, Brandon Weeden. Like with the WR’s, there is a bit of a muddle after the first tier of WR’s. Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III are obviously the #1 and #2 guys. After that, there isn’t much of a consensus on anyone. Seeing how some of these guys do in drills and how they interview will probably cause one or two to shoot up the board and possibly one or two to slide into Day 3 territory.
4. Smaller school guys. Guys like Appalachian State WR Brian Quick, Midwestern State OT Amini Silatolu, Louisiana-Lafayette TE Ladarius Green, Cal Poly DB Asa Jackson and Montana DB Trumaine Johnson are among the lesser known prospects (to many) who the casual draft follower or college football fan might not know about. There are usually one or two such players who see a boost in their stock by performing well in the drills or interview process.
5. Character or injury guys. How does Ryan Broyles’ knee check out? Is Alshon Jeffery’s work ethic bad or just a myth? This portion of the process goes largely unseen until the draft itself when you hear cryptic comments from a so-called expert about how “from what I understand, Player X didn’t do well in the interviews” or “Player Y apparently has some drug issues in his past” or “Player Z’s injury is more worrisome than many thought”. However, as we have seen in the case of Aaron Hernandez (drugs) or Rob Gronkowski (spinal injury), sometimes these red flags can be too highly considered on draft day. We all remember the hoopla about Cam Newton’s comments (“I’m an entertainer and an icon”). Many labeled him a diva or character risk based on those comments and his issues at Auburn. Luckily, Carolina was smart enough to trust their own interview process and make him their franchise QB.
6. Position conversion projects. With the increase of 3-4 teams in the NFL, but no real increase in college, there are more and more teams looking to convert college DT’s to 5-techniques and college DE’s to OLBs. In many cases, teams project these conversions with very little tape to go on. The drills at the combine (and pro days) can go a long way. Guys like Whitney Mercilus, Melvin Ingram, Vinny Curry, Cam Johnson, Andre Branch and the like will need to show well in LB drills to be considered by 3-4 clubs. Some DB drills could also help scouts identify CB’s who could flip to safety (especially important in this weak safety class).
All in all, it should be an interesting kickoff to a 6 month offseason.
Mock Draft 3.0
(Originally posted by me at Mocking The Draft)
The Senior Bowl is in the books and for all intents and purposes, the 2011 college football season is behind us. With less than a month until the scouting combine and less than three months until the draft, things are starting to come into focus a bit. Here’s a mock draft of how I see things shaking out if the draft were held today:
*Note that I am not projecting trades for the purposes of this mock draft
1. Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
No brainer. Next.
2. St. Louis Rams – Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
The Rams will likely lose Brandon Lloyd in free agency (he’s said he wants to follow Josh McDaniels, and the Patriots seem likely to be interested) and need to give Sam Bradford an elite weapon to utilize. St. Louis will probably try to move out of this pick, as there will be demand from QB-starved teams who covet Robert Griffin III. Sliding down a few spots should still allow the Rams to get their man Blackmon, who is the consensus #1 WR on the board.
3. Minnesota Vikings – Matt Kalil, OT, USC
The Vikings could go in a few directions here. They could use a CB and perhaps even a WR if they love Blackmon and he is there. However, protecting 2nd year QB Christian Ponder has to be a priority. Matt Kalil has a high upside and should keep Ponder’s blindside clean for the foreseeable future
4. Cleveland Browns – Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
Cleveland cannot pass on Griffin if the Baylor signal caller is sitting there at #4. Colt McCoy hasn’t established himself as a franchise guy and Griffin’s upside is too high to pass up for the mediocre McCoy. If Griffin goes #2, Blackmon could make some sense here for the Browns.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
It remains to be seen whether or not new Bucs head coach Greg Schiano will want to deal with his troubled, but talented, CB Aqib Talib. Even if he is willing to give Talib a chance, Ronde Barber is nearing the end of his great career and the Bucs need quality DB’s to compete in the NFC South against the likes of Steve Smith, Julio Jones and Marques Colston. Claiborne is the top CB available and would be a welcome addition to an already young and promising defense.
6. Washington Redskins – Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
The Redskins find themselves in no-man’s land here. Griffin is gone and their #2 need (WR) doesn’t give them good value. Washington seems like a good possibility to move up to grab Griffin, but if they stay put a talented OT like Riley Reiff makes a lot of sense. Jammal Brown hasn’t been able to get back to the level he was playing at before his hip injury a few years ago and could be on the way out. Reiff could bring long-term stability to the Redskins’ OL.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
If the Jaguars want to develop 2nd year QB Blaine Gabbert, they need to do a better job in keeping him upright – as he got rattled early and often in 2011. Stanford’s Jonathan Martin is an instinctive and powerful blocker who did a great job keeping Andrew Luck upright over the last 3 years. Martin’s also a talented run blocker and should be able to open running lanes for the Jaguars’ talented Maurice Jones-Drew.
8. Carolina Panthers – Michael Brockers, DL, LSU
Brockers caught a lot of people off guard by declaring for the 2011 draft as a redshirt sophomore. He definitely is a raw prospect who will need some refinement before he realizes his immense upside. That said, Brockers is an extremely talented DT who can play inside in a 4-3 front or slide over to the 5-technique in a 3-4. The young LSU DL has a great motor and uses his impressive lower body strength to power past OL in both the run and pass games. He’d provide the Panthers an elite presence in their interior line that they’ve lacked for many years.
9. Miami Dolphins – Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama
Upshaw measured in a little smaller than expected at the Senior Bowl, but he’s still the premier edge rusher in the 2012 draft. The Dolphins will most likely be shifting to a 4-3 next year and need a DE to play opposite Cameron Wake. Unless the Dolphins make a move to grab Griffin, and give themselves the franchise QB they’ve lacked since Dan Marino, Upshaw should be their guy
10. Buffalo Bills – Nick Perry, OLB, USC
The Bills will be reportedly staying with a 3-4 alignment (for now) and desperately need a pass-rushing presence to complement their talented DL (Kyle Williams, Marcel Dareus). Perry is a good looking pass rush prospect who could play standing up, or go back to DE if the Bills revert back to a 4-3 scheme.
11. Kansas City Chiefs – Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
Jamaal Charles is coming off a serious knee injury, Thomas Jones is old and Jackie Battle is mediocre. The Chiefs will likely remain a run-heavy team under now full-time coach Romeo Crennel. Richardson is an elite RB prospect with an excellent combination of vision, power and athleticism. While RB doesn’t make sense for a lot of teams in the 1st round, the Chiefs would greatly benefit from having a talented back like Richardson. If Charles comes back healthy, the Kansas City running attack would be a real force to be reckoned with.
12. Seattle Seahawks – Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
Like the Redskins, the QB starved Seahawks find themselves in an awkward spot. They could use an edge player to play in Pete Carroll’s “LEO” position, but there isn’t a great fit here at #12. Tannehill will strike some as a reach, but he has great upside and the Seahawks could try to skate by with Tarvaris Jackson for another year while Tannehill develops.
13. Arizona Cardinals – David DeCastro, OG, Stanford
The Cardinals find themselves in the opposite position of the Seahawks – they should have top players available at all of their positions of need. DeCastro is, perhaps, the best interior OL prospect in 15 years and could be the first guard since Chris Naeole to go in the top 10. If he’s sitting here at #13, he is close to a no-brainer for Arizona – who badly needs an upgrade on their OL. If they pass on DeCastro, a WR like Michael Floyd or Kendall Wright could make sense. A LB could also be in play here.
14. Dallas Cowboys – Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
The Cowboys OL has been a problem for a long time and always seems to hold them back. They grabbed Tyron Smith in the 1st last year, and this year grab Wisconsin Badgers center Peter Konz. Current starting C Phil Costa is not a realistic long-term solution and upgrading that spot would go a long way to letting Tony Romo and the Cowboys’ offense realize their potential.
15. Philadelphia Eagles – Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
DeSean Jackson is unsigned and unlikely to come back. The Eagles haven’t had a quality “big” receiver for awhile and Michael Vick needs a reliable down-field target. The 6’3 220 lbs Notre Dame WR plays with good physicality and is athletic enough to consistently separate from defenders. Floyd also has good run-after-catch abilities and can contribute as a blocker in the run game.
16. New York Jets – Dont’a Hightower, LB, Alabama
The Jets need a big WR like Floyd or Alshon Jeffery, but Rex Ryan’s defense also needs an infusion of talent in the LB corps. Bart Scott is old, declining and a good bet to be a salary-cap casualty. Dont’a Hightower plays a downhill, hard-hitting style which fits well in New York’s scheme. He also has better athleticism than people give him credit for and is the premier 3-4 ILB in the draft.
17. Cincinnati Bengals – Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
Leon Hall is coming off a serious Achilles injury and Nate Clements is a free agent after 2012. Kirkpatrick is a tough and aggressive CB who fits a big need for the Bengals. There is some talk that he might be a better fit at safety, which also is a need for the Bengals with Chris Crocker and Reggie Nelson as underwhelming starters.
18. San Diego Chargers – Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina
Malcolm Floyd was a disappointment playing opposite of Vincent Jackson and the Chargers need an upgrade at WR. There will be plenty of questions about Jeffery’s athleticism and work ethic between now and the draft. If he checks out and runs well, he will likely end up in the mid 1st round. At #18, he is a good value for San Diego and would help Philip Rivers rebound from a mediocre 2011 season.
19. Chicago Bears – Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor
The Bears have needed an elite playmaking WR for a long, long time. Kendall Wright is shooting up draft boards now due to his speed and athleticism. He would give Jay Cutler a great deep threat and take some pressure off Matt Forte (if he returns) and the Bears’ running game.
20. Tennessee Titans – Zach Brown, OLB, North Carolina
Coach Mike Munchak has stated his desire for a playmaker on defense. Zach Brown has elite speed and athleticism and is the best 4-3 WILL backer in the draft. Playing alongside 2nd year players Akeem Ayers and Colin McCarthy, Brown would give the Titans one of the youngest and promising LB corps in the NFL.
21. Cincinnati Bengals – Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia
The Bengals could use a RB to replace Cedric “3 yards and a cloud of dust” Benson but they could find better value in the 2nd or 3rd round. They need a boost along their offensive line and Cordy Glenn is an impressive prospect who has shown the ability to play a few spots along the line and an impressive run blocker. Playing in the physical AFC North, the Bengals would welcome a road grader like Cordy Glenn
22. Cleveland Browns – Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
The Browns hit a home run in 2011, grabbing Phil Taylor and Jabaal Sheard to give them a pair of young talents on their DL. While they could use a playmaker on offense (perhaps Lamar Miller, David Wilson or Mohamed Sanu), passing on the talented-but-inconsistent Coples would be a mistake. He’d give the Browns an imposing defensive line which could wreak havoc in the AFC North for years to come
23. Detroit Lions – Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
The Lions loss to the Saints in the playoffs demonstrated just how badly they need to upgrade their defensive backfield. Janoris Jenkins is an elite talent with a lot of off-field baggage who would go a long way in improving Detroit’s pass defense. If the Lions are comfortable with Jenkins’ character he will be too good to pass up at this point in the draft.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers – Vontaze Burfict, LB, Arizona
The Steelers need to replace the aging James Farrior. Burfict is a “love him or hate him” type of prospect. His athleticism isn’t in doubt, but his attitude and instincts have drawn a lot of criticism this year. Playing for the no-nonsense Mike Tomlin and alongside veterans like James Harrison, Burfict could mature into a star LB.
25. Denver Broncos – Dwayne Allen, TE, Clemson
The Broncos have a few needs on defense, but could also benefit from giving Tim Tebow another weapon to use on offense. Allen is a well rounded TE prospect who can help block in the run-heavy Broncos offense and also give Tebow an excellent short/intermediate target to utilize. A CB such as Stephon Gilmore or Chase Minnifield could also make sense for Denver here.
26. Houston Texans – Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers
The Texans don’t have a ton of holes on either side of the ball. However, they could use someone to line up opposite star receiver Andre Johnson. Sanu has nice size (6’2 215) and pretty good athleticism. He is a fairly reliable target, with big soft hands and long arms to snatch errant throws. He’s not a polished route runner, but has pretty good quickness in and out of his breaks. He can line up either inside or outside and contribute in all areas of the field.
27. New England Patriots – Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis
A NT doesn’t seem to be atop the Pats’ wishlist. But coach Belichick is a believer in Bill Parcells’ “Planet Theory” – the idea that there aren’t a lot of large guys who are athletic enough to play (and play well) in the NFL. Dontari Poe is both very large and deceptively nimble for a 6’5 350 lbs DT. Drafting Poe would allow the Pats to slide Vince Wilfork to 5-technique in a 3-4 front, which they have done with some success over the last few years. In a 40 front, Poe could eat up blockers alongside Wilfork, replacing current Pats DT Kyle Love.
28. Green Bay Packers – Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska
Charles Woodson is getting old and Tramon Williams gave up more yardage than any other CB in the league. Alfonzo Dennard is a physical and tough CB who fits well with Dom Capers’ scheme. Dennard is a very talented DB who seems to be sliding a bit due to questions about his athleticism and speed. If he runs well at the combine, he is likely gone by the 28th pick. If he’s here, he has to be Green Bay’s pick.
29. Baltimore Ravens – Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State
The Ravens’ biggest needs, C and ILB don’t really match the value on the board. They could try to trade down or they could grab talented Ohio State OT Mike Adams. Michael Oher has been a disappointment at T and Jah Reid might not be the long term answer either. With a lot of wear on current LT Bryant McKinnie, the Ravens could stand to add some reinforcements up front.
30. San Francisco 49ers – Kelechi Osemele, OG, Iowa State
San Francisco was below average in protecting their QB and need to upgrade their OL. Osemele has a terrific package of size, strength and athleticism for an interior lineman. He is an aggressive run blocker who also plays well in the passing game. He’d fit in well in John Harbaugh’s offense. The 49ers could also consider a 2nd tier WR prospect here although they’d probably get better value in the 2nd round.
31. New England Patriots – Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia
The Pats need a boost in their secondary. Drafting a CB will allow New England to keep Devin McCourty at safety or perhaps shift 2011 2nd rounder Ras-I Dowling to FS to partner with Pat Chung. Minnifield’s father, Frank, played under coach Bill Belichick in the early 1990’s and Belichick is sure to like the younger Minnifield’s combination of size and athleticism.
32. New York Giants – Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College
Every draft has a guy who slides a bit more than projected. While Kuechly is generally projected in the top 20 (and could very likely go there), it wouldn’t surprise me if he slides a little. He was extremely productive at Boston College, but is unlikely to impress in combine and pro day drills. The Giants, and former BC coach Tom Coughlin, love Boston College players and Kuechly would fit the Giants’ defense well.
Randy Moss, Hines Ward And The Rest Of The 1998 WR Class
The 2012 NFL Draft looks likely to see a lot of wide receivers selected early. Justin Blackmon, Alshon Jeffery, Michael Floyd and Kendall Wright all look like 1st round picks with a half a dozen or more guys who look like 2nd rounders. As many as 15 of the first 100 names called in April’s draft could be WR’s – making it one of the heaviest concentrations of early WR selections in NFL Draft history.
Another such draft occurred in 1998 – a class which produced one of the all-time greats (Randy Moss) and another highly successful and long-tenured WR (Hines Ward). Moss and Ward were two of 15 WR’s selected in the top 100 picks in 1998. Fourteen years later, Ward is the only guy still employed and most of the other early picks are long-since forgotten. Here’s a look at the WR class of 1998:
While Moss is easily the best WR in the class, he wasn’t the first WR to come off the board. Kevin Dyson, best remembered for coming up one yard short in Super Bowl XXXIV, was taken 5 picks before Moss and finished his otherwise forgettable 6 year career with less production that Moss put up in his first two years. The mercurial Moss, who slipped for the same character issues that would plague his whole career, has one of the most impressive résumés that you’ll ever find (minus the Super Bowl ring). The other 1st rounder – Marcus Nash – was a total flop and was out of the league less than 2 years after being drafted.
The 2nd round was filled with disappointments:
Of the 2nd rounders, Crowell looked like he was on his way to stardom – catching 81 passes for 1338 yards in his 2nd season. At 6’3 215 with good hands and speed, he resembled Randy Moss in many ways. Unfortunately, he suffered a career-altering knee injury in his 3rd season and never was able to regain his pre-injury form. He’s one of the best “what could have been?” types in the last 30 years. The highly hyped Jacquez Green had some nice production early, having 50+ catches in his 2nd and 3rd season. His career fell off a cliff shortly thereafter though, and he was out of the league by 2003. Pathon struggled with injuries and mediocrity for most of his career, although he managed to kick around the league for awhile. Jurevicius was a bit of a late bloomer who battled a number of ailments throughout his career. While he never lived up to his draft position, he was involved in a number of big plays in his career (including a 71 yard catch and run in the 2002 NFC Championship game). Patrick Johnson and Tony Simmons were total flops.
Putting Moss’ production in perspective – he had more catches and yards than Dyson, Nash, Pathon, Green, Johnson, Crowell and Simmons combined.
The first four of the five third rounders were complete washouts. Ward has been one of the most consistent and productive WR’s of his generation and is probably just short of being a Hall Of Fame consideration. The 4th round produced a pair of kick returning slot receivers in Az-Zahir Hakim, a key part of the “Greatest Show On Turf,” and journeyman Tim Dwight. Donald Hayes showed enough promise in Carolina to get a lucrative free agent contract from Bill Belichick’s New England Patriots – and promptly became one of the biggest free agent flops in team history.
The 5th-7th round picks:
Corey Bradford is the best of the late rounders, playing for 9 years between three teams and starting 50 games along the way. Bobby Shaw had a few good years and Alvis Whitted was an excellent special teams coverage guy for almost a decade. The others didn’t amount to much, although Fred Coleman managed to get a Super Bowl ring with the 2001 Patriots.
Overall, the 1998 class serves as a good reminder that a deep prospect class doesn’t always lead to a deep crop of good NFL players. While the 2012 class looks good on paper – despite missing the marquee talent like Moss – chances are that most of the early WR’s will be nothing more than 3 or 4 year contributors and special teams contributors.
Five Prospects To Watch In College Postseason
(originally posted by me at Mocking The Draft)
With the college football regular season over, and the NFL season winding down, NFL draft preparations start heating up. While there are still nearly five months until the 1st pick is announced, things will start to move very quickly for prospects and NFL personnel men. For many prospects, Bowl week, All-Star games and the Combine can make or break a prospect’s chances. For some, millions of dollars in guaranteed money are at stake. Here are five guys who need to shine over the next few months.
Brandon Weeden (QB, Oklahoma State) – Weeden is a bit of a polarizing prospect. Few doubt that he is a talented QB whose talents (and positional value) should put him in the top 50-75 prospects in the 2012 class. However, his age (he will be 29 in the 2012 season) will create a lot of debate between now and late April. Some will claim that he is as pro-ready as a prospect can be, and his drafting team can still get a good 5-7 years out of him. Others will say that his age precludes him from consideration in the top 3 or even 4 rounds. I’m not sure how much Weeden can really improve his stock, even with an excellent showing in the Fiesta Bowl (although outshining Andrew Luck in that game could give Weeden a boost). The best thing that can happen to Weeden is for some of the junior QB prospects to return to school. Right now, he is probably sitting between 5-10 on the QB rankings. But if a few of Matt Barkley, Robert Griffin III, E.J. Manuel and Landry Jones don’t declare, Weeden could find himself moving up fairly high in the draft.
Alameda Ta’amu (DT, Washington) – Ta’amu is the #1 or #2 ranked NT on many boards right now. With more than half the league running a 3-4 scheme, big, strong nosetackles like Ta’amu are in high demand. However, I’m not sold on him being a late 1st-early 2nd round prospect as he’s currently projected. For as strong as Ta’amu is, he gets pushed around too easily at time. He also ends up on the ground far too often for my liking. Both of these problems could stem from having mediocre (for his size) lower body strength. On top of that, he has a tendency to get too upright at times and not maintain a consistent low pad-level. There were games this year where Ta’amu was effectively neutralized by single-team blocking (e.g. his game against USC). Not good for a guy who will be counted on to occupy multiple blockers at the next level. His best asset is his first step quickness off the ball for a guy his size. A good combine showing in the agility drills could get Ta’amu into the late 1st round, which is probably a round higher than I’d consider him.
Alshon Jeffery (WR, South Carolina) – Coming into the 2011 season, Jeffery was widely considered to be a top 10 prospect. While some still have him that high, a bit of luster has come off of the Gamecocks’ star receiver. Watching his performance this year, it’s easy to see a guy with a lot of talent who has some issues with effort and consistency. Too many times Jeffery looked disinterested playing in a run-heavy offense. He – like some of the NFL’s high-talent, questionable-effort guys – tends to run sloppy routes, especially when the ball isn’t coming his way frequently. Throw in questions about his conditioning and weight, and there’s definitely a lot Jeffery needs to prove before he reclaims a spot in the top 10 overall picks. There’s no doubt Jeffery has a lot of talent, but he needs to excel at the combine and show that he is in shape and has enough burst and speed to be worthy of a top pick. He will also have to interview well to soothe concerns about his work ethic and attitude.
Dontari Poe (DT, Memphis) – Poe seems like the type of guy who will shoot up the boards as we move along in the process. His measurables (6’5 350 with decent mobility) are impressive. He has enticing upside and gives you the sense that he hasn’t come close to tapping his full potential. He, like Ta’amu, will draw a lot of interest as a NT due to the prevalence of 3-4 defenses. Poe is a bit taller than you’d like in a NT (only Ted Washington has had a lot of success at 6’5, although several quality NT’s have been 6’4) and struggles to keep his pads low. He will need a lot of coaching before he can be a reliable NFL defender, as his technique is pretty poor. However, his size, length and strength will be too much for some GM’s to resist. Poe can really improve his stock by interviewing well, demonstrating coachability and excelling in the strength tests at the combine.
Zach Brown (OLB, North Carolina) – Let’s face it, it’s a pretty bad year to be in the market for a quality 4-3 OLB. While it’s not typically a high-value position come April (except for the occasional elite prospect like Von Miller), there are usually a number of guys who make for solid late 1st-2nd round prospects. This year, Zach Brown is almost certainly the best of a class which is thin in talent at the top. He has tremendous athleticism for the position and should shine at the scouting combine. His speed and burst will draw some comparisons to Miller as we roll through the winter, but his instincts and power aren’t at the same level as last year’s 2nd overall pick. However, he still projects to be a top 15-20 prospect in the draft and with a solid showing at the Independence Bowl and good workouts, Brown could create a lot of distance between himself and the 2nd tier of OLB prospects and solidify his stock in the top half of round 1.
Too Little Too Late? The Rams Give Bradford a Weapon
Six weeks into the 2011 NFL season and the St. Louis Rams are 4th in the league in passing attempts, but only 22nd in passing yardage. Their leading receivers are Danario Alexander and Brandon Gibson – an underrated pair of WR but neither is a top-end talent. Coming into the pre-season, the Rams seemed to have a glut of “adequate” and “not bad” receivers: Danny Amendola (coming off a 85 catch 2010 season), Donnie Avery (returning from a bad knee injury), 2010 4th rounder Mardy Gilyard, the aforementioned Alexander and Gibson, 2011 draftees Greg Salas and Austin Pettis and notable free agent Mike Sims-Walker was brought in to round out the group.
With that many bodies in camp, it seems that Rams GM Billy Devaney gambled that one of his young receivers could step up and establish himself as a solid #1 target for young franchise QB Sam Bradford. Unfortunately, things could not have played out much worse for the Rams. Gilyard and Avery were cut before the season started, Amendola dislocated his elbow and then tore his triceps, Sims-Walker had consistency problems and was cut today and neither 2011 draftee has performed particularly well. At 0-5 and with Bradford struggling, Devaney decided to make a move (finally) to address his team’s WR problem.
Enter Brandon Lloyd – a great WR to be sure, but almost certainly too little, too late at this juncture. Which raises an interesting question: if Devaney believes that Sam Bradford was good enough to be drafted #1 overall, why not give (or attempt to give) Bradford an elite weapon? Did he believe that Josh McDaniels could turn the Rams menagerie of mediocrity into a high quality unit? Thinking back to last spring, it seems that most mock drafts had the Rams selecting a WR (A.J. Green, Julio Jones or 2nd tier guys like Jon Baldwin, Titus Young, Greg Little or Torrey Smith) or in the early going. Come draft day, there were even rumors that the Rams were poised to move up into the top 5 to secure one of the elite WR’s. While drafting a WR early is very risky, not providing quality targets to a young QB also comes with risk and can hamper a QB’s development (e.g. Alex Smith).
Unfortunately for the Rams, A.J. Green went 4th overall and Atlanta jumped up (paying a hefty price) to grab Julio Jones. Both of those guys have produced so far (a combined 54 catches for 811 yards and 4 TDs). The Rams, opted to not move up and instead took DE Robert Quinn to address their pass rush problem. In the 2nd round, the Rams selected TE Lance Kendricks 47th overall and passed up on Torrey Smith (58th to Baltimore), Greg Little (59th to Cleveland) and Randall Cobb (64th to Green Bay). They also just missed on Titus Young (45th to Detroit). While it may be unreasonable to suggest that Devaney should have given up a small fortune to get Jones or Green, it is baffling that they chose the Quinn/Kendricks duo over any of the 2nd tier of receivers.
Here are the receivers Devaney has drafted since taking over in 2008:
Avery looked promising before an ACL injury derailed his career, although it was somewhat surprising that the Rams gave up on him so quickly in his recovery effort. Missing badly on Gilyard, the 1st pick of the 4th round in 2010, hurts when you consider two other 4th round receivers from that draft:
It’s tough to blame Devaney for not taking Williams, and it would have been surprising had Williams been on the Rams’ board at all. Devaney is reportedly a big believer in avoiding players with reported character issues (and Williams may have had more such issues than just about anyone in the last 5 years). Perhaps that explains passing on Little, Baldwin and maybe Titus Young in 2011. But passing on Ford (who has 4 return TD’s and 2 rushing TD’s) for Gilyard hurts. While Ford may have been viewed as too similar to Donnie Avery (both extremely fast guys who work best outside the hashmarks), Gilyard didn’t present much that the Rams didn’t have already in Gibson, Amendola and Laurent Robinson.
Is Lloyd the answer for Bradford and McDaniels? He is in his 9th season, a FA at the end of the year and comes with some durability concerns. It seems like 2012 would be a great time for the Rams to add an elite WR prospect to their mix, even if they retain Lloyd. Justin Blackmon or Alshon Jeffery would both offer some (potential) help to an offense which seems to be a big-play WR away from being dangerous.