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Pre-Season Power Rankings: Part 1
With the first week of pre-season in the books, it’s time for the first Power Rankings of the year. Here’s the bottom half of the league as I see it currently, though these rankings are sure to change as August rolls into September. At this point of the league year it’s tough to find much separation between the 20-25 middle-road teams. Other than the truly elite and truly awful teams, pre-season rankings really amount to how much the author likes each team’s young players, coach and QB. With that said, here is the bottom half of the league from my point of view:
17. Kansas City Chiefs – Put a top QB on the Chiefs and they are arguably an elite team. Their defense was fairly stout down the stretch last season and responded well to new coach Romeo Crennel. There is a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, assuming Tony Moeaki, Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry can return to form after missing last year with injuries. Unlike AFC West rivals Oakland and San Diego, Kansas City seems more likely to exceed expectations than to disappoint. If Brian Daboll can get a good season from Cassel (questionable given the track records of both Daboll and Cassel), the Chiefs could see double-digit wins and a division championship. Even if Cassel struggles, they might be able to squeak out 9 or 10 wins if their running game can perform to 2010 levels.
18. Tennessee Titans – The Titans, like the Bills, Chiefs and a few other teams, have a lot of nice pieces but it’s hard to project them to have a ton of success – though history tells us that one or more of the middle tier teams will put it all together and make a good run. Like those other teams, I can’t put them any higher than the middle of the pack due to their QB situation. Jake Locker is the future and probably a better bet than Matt Hasselbeck to lead the team to postseason glory but can he perform at the NFL level? The talent surrounding him is intriguing though it’s easy to be down on both Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt. Their defense has a good amount of talent despite not having many household names and the Titans could be well-balanced enough to make a run at their division if Locker can step up.
19. Buffalo Bills – Their front 7 is certainly talented, despite the horrendous contract given to Mark Anderson. The rest of the team is still lacking high-end talent and they are still led by Ryan Fitzpatrick and Chan Gailey. I don’t think 2012 will be the breakout year that Bills fans are hoping for, though 2nd place in the AFC East and an outside shot at the playoffs could be a possibility.
20. San Diego Chargers – With just about any other coach, the Chargers would have been higher up in my rankings. I just cannot take a Norv Turner coached team seriously. Especially a Norv Turner coached team with its worst talent level in a number of years. The Chargers are razor thin at a number of positions on both sides of the ball and are relying heavily on Ryan Mathews and Antonio Gates to stay healthy. The defense will need the plethora of recent high draft picks (Melvin Ingram, Kendall Reyes, Corey Luiget, Marcus Gilchrist et al) to step up for the Chargers to make a strong playoff run.
21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The Bucs should be better in 2012 if only because their coaching situation looks to be more stable (if not dramatically improved). It’s no secret that Raheem Morris was in over his head last year and that contributed to the team’s under-performance. They have a ton of young talent – on paper – and signing Vincent Jackson will help their offense quite a bit. Certainly, their skill positions look promising and the OL is solid enough to win. The real questions in Tampa Bay are: can Josh Freeman ever take the next step in his development and can Greg Schiano get his young talent to fulfill their promise?
22. Carolina Panthers – The Panthers offense again be a strong unit, though it’s likely the league will be better prepared for Cam Newton and the Carolina rushing attack. The OL has some question marks and the depth at WR can’t sustain a loss of Steve Smith (nor a decline in his production). That said, they should score a lot of points and be near the top of the league in yards. However, the defense – bad last year – hasn’t been improved enough to make the Panthers legitimate contenders. Adding Luke Kuechly is a nice start to rebuilding the team’s front 7 but there are still too many holes on D. The interior DL and CB spots are thin at best and the team will have to win a lot of shootouts to avoid a losing record.
23. Oakland Raiders – Carson Palmer is the epitome of a league-average QB. The Raiders are the epitome of a league average team talent-wise. Why are they so low in my power rankings? Simply put, I don’t see a lot of places for the Raiders to get unexpected production and chances are good that either Palmer implodes or Darren McFadden gets derailed by his seemingly yearly injury. They’re an 8-8 team (maybe 9-7 given their division) if everything goes right, but the guys they are relying upon have such troubling track records that it’s more likely than not that they underachieve relative to their talent level.
24. Indianapolis Colts – The Colts could be downright awful in 2012. However, their first pre-season game showed enough to think that there is also a chance that Indianapolis could be respectable this year. Forget the Andrew Luck hype and the over-the-top gushing over his first preseason game against an inept St. Louis team. What piqued my interest was the way Chuck Pagano had his defense playing. While the Rams’ OL is putrid, the key players on the Colts’ D look to have adapted to the new 3-4 look and even Jerry Hughes showed some potential as a pure rush linebacker. The young talent on offense is there and a good QB – which Luck seems poised to be right from the start – can make up for a lot of shortcomings. Luck’s biggest challenge will be surviving with a very questionable OL in front of him.
25. Arizona Cardinals – The NFL is a passing league and it’s tough to think of a team with a worse QB situation. Neither John Skelton nor Kevin Kolb seem like good enough passers to keep the Cardinals offense moving and the team’s running game simply isn’t able to compensate for their lack of a quality signal caller. Their defense, both young and promising, should help them stay in games and could keep them from a truly terrible season. Outside of a soft 4 game stretch from weeks 4-7, the Cardinals have a tough schedule. It would be surprising if they won more than 7 games and they have the potential to end up drafting top 5 in 2013.
26. New York Jets – The Jets seem like a team destined for collapse. Their defense has little depth outside of their DE spot and the offense is a mess. They fancy themselves a “ground and pound” offense but Shonn Greene is both mediocre and too soft for the style of offense Rex Ryan likes to employ. The QB situation has been much discussed, but neither Mark Sanchez nor Tim Tebow are good enough to win in the NFL without the defense carrying the team. If the Jets D stays healthy and Stephen Hill can hit the ground running, the Jets can probably hover around .500. But they are one or two injuries away from a 4-12 type of season.
27. Miami Dolphins – Ryan Tannehill looked good in his first pre-season action, but it’s hard to find a team with less talent on offense than Miami. Their WR’s, TE’s and RB’s are all in the bottom third of the league and probably in the bottom 5 at each position. Conversely, their defense is pretty solid and their schedule is somewhat favorable. 8-8 is probably their absolute upside if their defense can steal some games for them.
28. Cleveland Browns – I’m a bit more bullish on Brandon Weeden than many (though his first pre-season game didn’t really do much to inspire) but I’m not at all sold on the rest of the Browns talent on offense. Trent Richardson should help but the rest of the talent on offense is below average. Greg Little was a drop machine last year and supplemental draft pick Josh Gordon is unlikely to make a big impact early on. The defense has lost Chris Gocong from an already-thin LB grouping and Joe Haden is facing a 4 game suspension. It looks like another tough year in Cleveland.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars – Blaine Gabbert has a lot to prove this year after a horrific 2011 season. He has some decent pieces to work with on offense but a shaky OL which wasn’t improved enough in the offseason. The Jaguars D put up decent numbers last year but it is tough to see them repeating a top 10 year on that side of the ball given their tougher schedule and lack of top-end talent. 38th overall pick Andre Branch looks promising and the Jaguars have enough pieces to surprise some people if Gabbert can find his footing as a starting QB in the NFL. Mike Mularkey was a questionable choice as a coach and might not get too many years to turn around the franchise.
30. Washington Redskins – Robert Griffin III will give the Redskins something to watch every week, but the rest of the team needs more talent before the Redskins are ready to compete in the NFC East. They have enough decent players on both sides of the ball to think that they could exceed expectations with some luck. However, a rookie QB with a limited supporting cast can only do so much – especially against one of the league’s toughest schedules. The Redskins probably won’t play as poorly as their final record might suggest.
31. Minnesota Vikings – Barring a phenomenal year from Christian Ponder, it is hard to see how the Vikings can win more than 6 games. While Jared Allen and Adrian Peterson are amongst the game’s best players, the supporting cast is decidedly sub-par. They are riddled with holes on both sides of the ball and unlike many other bad teams from 2011, Minnesota didn’t do much to improve their roster. Matt Kalil should help solidify their line but it’s unlikely that the rest of their draft picks will be enough to get Minnesota out of the division’s cellar.
32. St. Louis Rams – Jeff Fisher will get his guys to play hard and compete, but there is still a significant lack of talent on the roster. The OLB and S spots are in bad shape and the team’s OL is amongst the worst in the league. There are a number of promising young players, but the Rams will lose a lot of games in 2012. They look like a team which will start to build some momentum late in the year as young players start to develop and find their footing in Fisher’s scheme.
Quick Hit: 2011 Pass/Run Percentages
With the 2011 season in the books, it’s a good time to start analyzing the year’s data. Here are the offensive pass/run playcalling percentages for 2011:
The league-wide average was 57.1% Pass and 42.9% Run. One interesting thing that stands out is that the Patriots are 13th in passing frequency (59.52%) – despite Tom Brady throwing for 5,235 yards over 611 attempts. The Rams threw the ball about the same amount, but for only 2,870 yards.
Too Little Too Late? The Rams Give Bradford a Weapon
Six weeks into the 2011 NFL season and the St. Louis Rams are 4th in the league in passing attempts, but only 22nd in passing yardage. Their leading receivers are Danario Alexander and Brandon Gibson – an underrated pair of WR but neither is a top-end talent. Coming into the pre-season, the Rams seemed to have a glut of “adequate” and “not bad” receivers: Danny Amendola (coming off a 85 catch 2010 season), Donnie Avery (returning from a bad knee injury), 2010 4th rounder Mardy Gilyard, the aforementioned Alexander and Gibson, 2011 draftees Greg Salas and Austin Pettis and notable free agent Mike Sims-Walker was brought in to round out the group.
With that many bodies in camp, it seems that Rams GM Billy Devaney gambled that one of his young receivers could step up and establish himself as a solid #1 target for young franchise QB Sam Bradford. Unfortunately, things could not have played out much worse for the Rams. Gilyard and Avery were cut before the season started, Amendola dislocated his elbow and then tore his triceps, Sims-Walker had consistency problems and was cut today and neither 2011 draftee has performed particularly well. At 0-5 and with Bradford struggling, Devaney decided to make a move (finally) to address his team’s WR problem.
Enter Brandon Lloyd – a great WR to be sure, but almost certainly too little, too late at this juncture. Which raises an interesting question: if Devaney believes that Sam Bradford was good enough to be drafted #1 overall, why not give (or attempt to give) Bradford an elite weapon? Did he believe that Josh McDaniels could turn the Rams menagerie of mediocrity into a high quality unit? Thinking back to last spring, it seems that most mock drafts had the Rams selecting a WR (A.J. Green, Julio Jones or 2nd tier guys like Jon Baldwin, Titus Young, Greg Little or Torrey Smith) or in the early going. Come draft day, there were even rumors that the Rams were poised to move up into the top 5 to secure one of the elite WR’s. While drafting a WR early is very risky, not providing quality targets to a young QB also comes with risk and can hamper a QB’s development (e.g. Alex Smith).
Unfortunately for the Rams, A.J. Green went 4th overall and Atlanta jumped up (paying a hefty price) to grab Julio Jones. Both of those guys have produced so far (a combined 54 catches for 811 yards and 4 TDs). The Rams, opted to not move up and instead took DE Robert Quinn to address their pass rush problem. In the 2nd round, the Rams selected TE Lance Kendricks 47th overall and passed up on Torrey Smith (58th to Baltimore), Greg Little (59th to Cleveland) and Randall Cobb (64th to Green Bay). They also just missed on Titus Young (45th to Detroit). While it may be unreasonable to suggest that Devaney should have given up a small fortune to get Jones or Green, it is baffling that they chose the Quinn/Kendricks duo over any of the 2nd tier of receivers.
Here are the receivers Devaney has drafted since taking over in 2008:
Avery looked promising before an ACL injury derailed his career, although it was somewhat surprising that the Rams gave up on him so quickly in his recovery effort. Missing badly on Gilyard, the 1st pick of the 4th round in 2010, hurts when you consider two other 4th round receivers from that draft:
It’s tough to blame Devaney for not taking Williams, and it would have been surprising had Williams been on the Rams’ board at all. Devaney is reportedly a big believer in avoiding players with reported character issues (and Williams may have had more such issues than just about anyone in the last 5 years). Perhaps that explains passing on Little, Baldwin and maybe Titus Young in 2011. But passing on Ford (who has 4 return TD’s and 2 rushing TD’s) for Gilyard hurts. While Ford may have been viewed as too similar to Donnie Avery (both extremely fast guys who work best outside the hashmarks), Gilyard didn’t present much that the Rams didn’t have already in Gibson, Amendola and Laurent Robinson.
Is Lloyd the answer for Bradford and McDaniels? He is in his 9th season, a FA at the end of the year and comes with some durability concerns. It seems like 2012 would be a great time for the Rams to add an elite WR prospect to their mix, even if they retain Lloyd. Justin Blackmon or Alshon Jeffery would both offer some (potential) help to an offense which seems to be a big-play WR away from being dangerous.