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Replacing Marino: The Dolphins Never-Ending Search For A QB

March 19, 2012 Leave a comment

With Matt Flynn signing in Seattle, Robert Griffin III headed to Washington and Peyton Manning seemingly not interested, the Dolphins for the 13th season in a row are left wondering who their next franchise QB will be. In the 12 seasons since Marino retired, the Dolphins have struggled to find a merely average QB, let alone a true cornerstone player. They’ve trotted out a seemingly endless string of veteran retreads (Chad Pennington, Gus Frerotte), has-beens (Daunte Culpepper, Trent Green) and never were’s (Joey Harrington, Cleo Lemon, Sage Rosenfels, Brian Griese). A whopping 16 different QB’s have started for Miami since their Hall of Famer departed after the 1999 season. Take a look at the numbers:

Player GS Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate
Chad Pennington 20 373 552 67.6% 4085 20 9 94.5
Matt Moore 12 210 347 60.5% 2497 16 9 87.1
Daunte Culpepper 4 81 134 60.4% 929 2 3 77.0
Jay Fiedler 59 936 1603 58.4% 11040 66 63 76.8
Chad Henne 31 646 1065 60.7% 7114 31 37 75.7
Trent Green 5 85 141 60.3% 987 5 7 72.6
Cleo Lemon 8 211 377 56.0% 2185 8 7 72.2
Gus Frerotte 15 257 494 52.0% 2996 18 13 71.9
Ray Lucas 6 94 163 57.7% 1090 4 6 70.8
Brian Griese 5 74 130 56.9% 813 5 6 69.2
Sage Rosenfels 2 54 109 49.5% 776 6 6 68.4
Joey Harrington 11 223 388 57.5% 2236 12 15 68.2
Tyler Thigpen 1 37 70 52.9% 518 3 4 67.4
John Beck 4 60 107 56.1% 559 1 3 62.0
A.J. Feeley 8 191 356 53.7% 1893 11 15 61.7
Damon Huard 1 39 63 61.9% 318 1 3 60.2

Looking at it another way, take a look at the Dolphins team QB Rating in the last 12 seasons, compared to league average:

Only Chad Pennington in 2008 was significantly above average. Matt Moore, to his credit, did a pretty decent job last year – posting a QB Rating of 84.9, a little better than the 82.5 league average. To that end, Moore was statistically better than Michael Vick, Cam Newton Joe Flacco, Matt Hasselbeck, Mark Sanchez and Jay Cutler. The issue for the Dolphins is that Moore at his best doesn’t seem like the type of guy who can take a team deep in the playoffs without a great defense behind him. Of course it’s possible that he is a late bloomer and could continue to improve, but if you’re Miami, do you really want to put your future in the hands of Matt Moore? Probably not.

That said, Moore’s success in 2011 is a good reason to avoid Matt Flynn who is no sure bet to be any better than Moore and is only 10 months younger. That Flynn’s former offensive coordinator and current Dolphins coach Joe Philbin wasn’t willing to make a big play for Flynn (and it seems that Miami’s interest in him was tepid) says a lot about the Dolphins valuation of Moore vs. Flynn. While Flynn might end up the better player, it’s tough to blame Miami for not seeing him as a guy worth $19-24M.

Where the Dolphins do deserve some criticism though is not addressing the QB spot in the draft. They’ve wasted 2nd round picks on Pat White (2009), Chad Henne (2008) and John Beck (2007) and took a late round flier on Josh Heupel (6th round, 2001) but have otherwise ignored the position since Marino left.

Looking ahead, the Dolphins will have to decide whether or not they want to invest a high draft pick in a rookie QB. Ryan Tannehill is raw but has high upside and the Dolphins could easily sit him behind the reasonably competent Moore for a year. However, will Tannehill still be around when the Dolphins are on the clock? It seems likely, but there are still more teams in need of a QB than quality veterans available so it wouldn’t be a shock if someone jumps Miami to take Tannehill or perhaps the Browns pull the trigger at #4. The other option would be Brandon Weeden, but at soon-to-be 29 years old, is he really worth a high investment for a team with a mediocre 28 year old QB at the helm? Certainly not in the 1st round but will Weeden last until Miami’s 2nd round pick? What about 2nd tier guys like Kirk Cousins, Nick Foles or Brock Osweiler? Again, it’s tough to project any of those guys as a long term answer or even a better solution than Moore.

Unfortunately for the Dolphins, unless Moore totally bombs they will not be in position for Matt Barkley next year so they might have to get aggressive with how they address the position. Either they will have to secure Tannehill (trading up if necessary) or they will have to be prepared to go hard for Barkley (or another franchise QB type) next year. Of course, if the Dolphins go with Moore + Cousins (or another 2nd/3rd tier QB) they will just be reliving the pattern of the last few years which has gotten them nowhere. At some point they have to make a splash at the position because they won’t hoist the Lombardi trophy without an upgrade from the Matt Moore’s of the world

Winners And Losers From Barkley’s Decision

December 23, 2011 1 comment

(Originally posted by me at Mocking The Draft)

For weeks, even months, fans of teams in need of a franchise QB have been salivating over the number of options to pick from in round 1 of the 2012 draft. While Andrew Luck has been the consensus #1 pick in 2012 for nearly a full calender year – ever since he announced he would return to school – Matt Barkley had established himself as a top 10 pick. While Robert Griffin III had a phenomenal season, capped off by a Heisman trophy win, many still considered Barkley to be the 2nd best QB prospect on the board. Unfortunately for teams seeking a new signal-caller, Barkley is headed back to college. Here are the top winners and losers from today’s decision:

Winners:

Robert Griffin III
– Assuming the Heisman trophy winning QB declares (a matter still very much up in the air), he immediately becomes the unanimous #2 QB on the board. Barring a terrible performance at the combine, or teams getting cold feet if Griffin is a bit shorter than expected, Griffin stands to be a top 5 pick. There are even grumblings that he could leapfrog Andrew Luck atop the 2012 board. While that seems a bit extreme – at least right now – there is no doubt Griffin will hear his name called very early on Day 1.

Ryan Tannehill/Landry Jones/Nick Foles – The 2nd tier of QB prospects instantly become 1st round considerations if they weren’t before. The draft is very much a good example of the principles of supply and demand. Once Luck and Griffin are gone, teams will get antsy waiting around for the #3 QB to come off the board. It wouldn’t surprise me to see one of these guys go much earlier than many think. Tannehill or Jones might even sneak into the top 15.

Minnesota Vikings/St.Louis Rams – Whichever team holds the #2 pick in the draft immediately sees a big demand for their pick. Far more teams need a franchise QB than will be able to find one via the veteran free agent and trade market. Going into the draft, there figures to be at least 4 or 5 teams desperately in need of a long-term answer at QB. The only way to ensure you get a premier prospect (Griffin) is to leapfrog all the other QB-needy teams. One would think the price tag in any trade just went up.

Brian Hoyer/Matt Flynn – Young veteran QB’s buried behind superstars. Both Hoyer (restricted) and Flynn (unrestricted) will be free agents at the end of the year and both figure to be options for teams who will be unable to get Luck or Griffin. Flynn seems almost certain to leave the Packers and Hoyer could probably be pried free from New England for the right price. With one less young QB option available, these guys could see an increase in the demand for their services.

Kyle Orton – As sad as it might sound, Orton will most likely be the best “established” veteran QB available in free agency. It’s possible the Chiefs decide to keep him around, but they probably won’t be alone in bidding for Orton. He could provide a good 1 or 2 year stopgap for a team who doesn’t want to reach for a 2nd or 3rd tier guy in the draft.

Losers:

Seattle Seahawks – Beyond the Pete Carroll/USC connection, the Seahawks seemed like a pretty good landing spot for Barkley. Their offense would have been a good fit for him and they are arguably a franchise QB away from being a serious NFC West contender. Seattle has been winning too much lately to have been in position to draft Barkley, but they won’t even have the chance to trade up for him now. Furthermore, the increased demand for 2nd tier guys could put the Seahawks in a tough spot if they end up drafting in the middle of the 1st round. Do they reach for a QB? Do they wait til round 2 and take a lesser prospect and hope for the best? Tarvaris Jackson isn’t the answer and Pete Carroll needs to find a better QB if he wants to stick around for awhile

Washington Redskins – The Redskins have needed a QB since the days of Mark Rypien. They have missed on three 1st round QB’s since Rypien (Heath Shuler, Patrick Ramsey, Jason Campbell) and were in prime position to get either Griffin or Barkley. Now they will have to try to trade up to get get Griffin – not as good of a system fit as Barkley would have been- or settle for a 2nd rounder (or pass altogether).

Miami Dolphins – Pretty much the same story as Washington. The Dolphins aren’t too far away from being a contender but need a better QB than Matt Moore. Few teams have invested as little in the QB position as the Dolphins. Since 1990, the Dolphins have only drafted 7 QB’s. They waited too late to find an heir to Hall of Famer Dan Marino and have missed on questionable 2nd rounders John Beck, Chad Henne and Pat White. It’s tough to see the Dolphins being able to win the AFC East with their endless parade of journeymen and fringe starters.

Cleveland Browns
– Depending on whether or not Mike Holmgren, Tom Heckert and Pat Shurmer believe in Colt McCoy, the Browns could have been a player for Barkley. With Griffin almost certainly off the board by the time the Browns are on the clock, McCoy probably survives another year as Cleveland’s starter.

Pre-Bowl Mock Draft

December 13, 2011 Leave a comment

(Originally posted by me at Mocking the Draft)

Bowl season is nearly upon us, and NFL draft talk is starting to kick into high gear. While things will change a lot between now and April’s draft, here is how I envision things could play out:

*Note that I project Landry Jones to go back to school.

1. Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford.

This one seems pretty obvious. There will be rumblings that maybe Griffin could go here, or the Colts could trade for a king’s ransom but Luck has to be the guy. Whether or not he’s as good as some claim, or whether or not taking a QB with Peyton Manning already in tow is a good idea is irrelevant. The Colts passing on Luck would be a huge surprise.

2. St. Louis Rams – Morris Claiborne, CB LSU

If the Rams end up in the #2 spot, I’d expect them to trade out to someone who wants either Griffin or Barkley (assuming both declare). Since I’m not projecting trades in this mock, Claiborne makes the most sense. If the Rams don’t re-sign Brandon Lloyd, a WR needs to be the pick. The Rams’ CB’s are mediocre at best when healthy and Claiborne is definitely the best DB in the draft

3. Minnesota Vikings – Matt Kalil, OT, USC

There have been rumblings that Kalil will go back to USC, but if he comes out he has to be the pick for the Vikings. With a great RB and a young QB, a solid OL would go a long way towards solidifying the Vikings’ offense. Currently, the Vikings are lining up Charlie Johnson at LT. That’s a sure sign that they need a big-time upgrade on Christian Ponder’s blindside. If Claiborne is still around, I expect the Vikings to give him a long look as well

4. Carolina Panthers – Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

The Panthers really need a DT or LB but this is a terrible draft for those positions. It would be too much of a reach for them to take a front 7 player this high. The Panthers’ WR corps could use an upgrade – Steve Smith is getting old, Brandon LaFell is a nice player but not a gamebreaker and David Gettis is coming off a knee injury. Giving Cam Newton a target like Blackmon could instantly make the Panthers’ offense one of the most exciting in the game.

5. Washington Redskins – Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

The Redskins have a good thing going on defense with Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan, but their offense is a mess. They have lacked a true franchise QB for 20 years (and that’s assuming you count Mark Rypien as a franchise QB). Griffin is likely to impress scouts at the combine and has probably solidified himself as a top 10 pick. Matt Barkley is perhaps a safer (and more likely?) pick here, but Griffin offers a degree of excitement which could be too much for Dan Snyder, Bruce Allen and Shanahan to resist

6. Cleveland Browns – Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

The Browns are in an interesting spot at #6. Come April, they will most likely be sitting on the clock with at least one top QB prospect, one top WR prospect and the best RB prospect on the board. I’m not at all sold on Colt McCoy, but I tend to think that the Browns will give him one more year – one with some real weapons to utilize. Trent Richardson is the fashionable pick here for a reason. This draft is knee-deep in wide receivers for the Browns to add later in the 1st or in the 2nd. The question really is: is Pat Shurmur going to want a RB over a WR given how often he likes to throw? He doesn’t make the draft day decisions, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Browns go with a WR like Michael Floyd instead of the RB.

7. Miami Dolphins – Matt Barkley, QB, USC

Like the Redskins, it’s been a very long time since Miami has a franchise QB. Matt Moore is a decent enough stopgap in case Barkley isn’t ready to start on Day 1. Passing on a QB in 2012 would be a huge mistake for a Dolphins team which isn’t too far away from being competitive.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars – Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina

The Jaguars need help just about everywhere. I don’t think they give up on Gabbert quite yet and they might be reluctant to going OT with recent investments in Eben Britton and Eugene Monroe. Quinton Coples could make some sense here, but Jacksonville really has to give Gabbert some weapons if he is to have any chance at success. Michael Floyd’s off-field transgressions might get him pulled from the Jaguars’ draft board, as they are fairly stringent upon selecting “high character” players early. For Jeffery to go this high, he will need to have had an excellent combine and/or Pro Day

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Zach Brown, LB, North Carolina

The first semi-surprise of the draft is the Buccaneers take the best 4-3 OLB in the draft. Brown is a near-perfect fit for the WILL spot in the Bucs’ defense. While many will think a top 10 pick on Brown is a bit crazy, he is one of the few LB’s in this very poor crop of defensive players who has above-average pass rushing upside. The Bucs could also consider a CB here, with Aqib Talib having off-field issues and Ronde Barber near retirement.

10. Kansas City Chiefs – Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

The Chiefs really need a QB but there isn’t one worth taking at this point. If Landry Jones comes out, he could be a consideration here. The Chiefs also have some holes in their front 7 which need to be addressed but they have to find a solution at OT. 10th overall might be too high for a RT to replace the below-average Barry Richardson, but for a team that loves to run the ball a high-quality OL would go a long way.

11. Philadelphia Eagles – Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College

With Manti Te’o going back to school for 2012, Kuechly shoots up into a surefire top 15 pick. The Eagles’ LB’s are abysmal and desperately need an upgrade. Kuechly, a highly productive and versatile linebacker, will go a long way in solidifying the Eagles defense.

12. Buffalo Bills – Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama

The Bills could go in a number of directions here. They could grab an OT or even WR in this spot but they make a slight reach to grab the top 3-4 OLB available. Upshaw would instantly upgrade the Bills’ pass rush and provides a fair bit of versatility.

13. Arizona Cardinals – Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford

The Cardinals have seemingly had OL struggles forever and upgrading RT Brandon Keith is a must. Martin could play either RT or LT (with Levi Brown flipping over to the right side) and will bring some stability to a perpetually problematic unit. Don’t rule out a LB if there is a post-Combine riser.

14. Seattle Seahawks -Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M

The Seahawks absolutely have to come out of the 2012 draft with a young QB. If they miss out on the “big 3” and Landry Jones goes back to school, Tannehill has to be their guy. While many draft experts and fans will be screaming “reach!!!”, the naturally exuberant Pete Carroll will be plenty “pumped and jacked” to have a better option than Tarvaris Jackson or Charlie Whitehurst. Passing on Tannehill here would put the Seahawks in a tough position – they would likely have to trade up from their mid-2nd round pick or settle for a guy like Nick Foles or E.J. Manuel

15. San Diego Chargers – David DeCastro, G, Stanford

DeCastro is possibly the best guard prospect since Chris Naeole in 1997. The Chargers’ OL is a mess with injuries and under-producing talent. All-Pro guard Kris Dielman is reportedly considering retirement after suffering a seizure following a concussion. DeCastro is a big, mean guy who has surprising quickness for his size. He’d look pretty good opening holes for Ryan Mathews.

16. Dallas Cowboys – Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

The Cowboys need a CB to play opposite Mike Jenkins. Terence Newman is getting old and has a high price tag. Kirkpatrick gives the Cowboys some size to match up with the NFC’s taller receivers. He offers the aggressiveness and versatility that defensive coordinator Rob Ryan likes in his CB’s.

17. Tennessee Titans – Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina

Derrick Morgan and Jason Jones have both been underwhelming for the Titans and Coples is too good to pass up here. He has top 10 talent, but lacks the consistency that you’d like to see from a player taken that early.

18. New York Giants – Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State

The Giants need help in a few places, including LB, but Adams is a great value pick at #18. Kareem McKenzie and David Diehl both look to be at the end of the line and the Giants have very little behind either. Adams can most likely be an opening day starter at RT with some potential to play LT down the road.

19. Chicago Bears – Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

It would be a bit surprising if Floyd drops this far, especially if his character issues are smoothed over in combine interviews. The Bears need some help at OL (as always) but need a truly dynamic receiving option for Jay Cutler. The recently re-signed Earl Bennett is a nice complementary player, but the Bears haven’t had an elite WR in a long time. If they can re-sign Matt Forte, Chicago will have a very nice arsenal of weapons.

20. Cincinnati Bengals – Lamar Miller, RB, Miami

Cedric Benson is unsigned, has legal troubles, and isn’t very good. Andy Dalton and A.J. Green give the Bengals an exciting offensive core, but they need to get a RB to take some of the pressure off the passing game. Miller has an excellent combination of size and speed and gives the Bengals another home-run threat for their developing offense.

21. Cincinnati Bengals (via Oakland) – Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska

Johnathan Joseph is gone and Leon Hall has a torn Achilles. There is serious doubt as to whether or not Hall will be able to get back to his 2009 All-Pro form. Even if Hall rebounds, there is plenty of room to upgrade from Nate Clements and Kelly Jennings. Dennard lacks the top-end speed that the Bengals often covet, but he’s the best guy on the board and should make for a highly productive NFL player.

22.Cleveland Browns (via Atlanta) – Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor

With Trent Richardson in tow, the Browns have to add an explosive receiver to help the seemingly overwhelmed Colt McCoy. Wright is a burner who will give the Browns their first true deep threat in years. It might seem a little early for him, but smaller, speedy WR’s are en vogue right now and Pat Shurmur loves to throw the ball.

23. New York Jets – Vontaze Burfict, LB, Arizona State

If there is one coach to whom Vontaze Burfict could respond, it’s Rex Ryan. Burfict has a lot of questions surrounding him about his character, coachability and instincts but his upside is very high if he can harness his ability. The Jets need help at S, G, and OLB but Ryan will have a hard time passing up Burfict who would make an excellent replacement for the aging Bart Scott.

24. Denver Broncos – Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis

The stop gap DT’s in Denver, Bunkley and Thomas, have held up surprisingly well. However, it would be a surprise if the Broncos didn’t try to upgrade this spot early in the draft. Poe is a massive DT with pretty good mobility for his size. Post-combine, he is likely to shoot up the boards as he appeals to both 4-3 and 3-4 teams. A CB could also be a consideration here.

25. Detroit Lions – Levy Adcock, OT, Oklahoma State

The Lions’ OL has needed a premium upgrade for awhile now and Adcock would be a huge upgrade over just about anyone on their current unit. Detroit has struggled with both run blocking and pass protection this year. Adcock isn’t the toughest, meanest guy out there but he is huge with above average athleticism. An offensive guard could also warrant consideration.

26. New England Patriots – Devon Still, DT, Penn State

The Patriots will most likely be looking to trade one of their 1st round picks as usual. If they stay put, Still is an easy choice for Bill Belichick. He offers the size and versatility that Belichick likes in his lineman and could lineup next to Vince Wilfork inside in a 40 front or kick out to 5-technique if the Patriots return to a 3-4 scheme. Penn State DL don’t have the best track record of success in the NFL, but it would be tough to pass up on Stll at this point.

27. San Francisco 49ers – T.J. McDonald, FS, USC

The 49ers need a big-play WR, but it’s probably too early for any of the guys still on the board so a safety makes the most sense. Dashon Goldson is a pending free agent (and upgradable even if he were to return). McDonald offers a similar playmaking ability and hard-hitting approach as his father did for the 49ers in the late 1990’s. He has some issues with personal foul penalties, and needs some refinement in his technique, but McDonald has the most upside of any safety in what is looking like another terrible crop.

28. New England Patriots – Mark Barron, S, Alabama

The worst kept secret in the NFL is that Bill Belichick’s secondary is a horror show. While there is some talent (both underachieving and injured) at CB, safety is a huge problem. Pat Chung is a good player, but has really struggled with injuries. Matthew Slater, a WR/special teams ace is starting at FS. James Ihedigbo and Sergio Brown should strictly stick to kick coverage units. The Patriots have to address the safety position in a big way this offseason. While the Patriots need a FS more than a SS, they need the best possible guy they can get which is Barron. An edge rusher like Whitney Mercilus or Brandon Jenkins could be a possibility at this spot, if the Patriots don’t trade out

29. Houston Texans – Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia

The Texans don’t have too many glaring holes, but could use an upgrade along their OL. At #29, Cordy Glenn is a steal. He has impressive physical tools, the size and ability that scouts drool over. Glenn projects to a guard in the NFL but could make it at RT as well. The already elite running game of the Texans would become even more deadly with Glenn paving the way for Arian Foster and Ben Tate.

30. Baltimore Ravens – Don’ta Hightower, ILB, Alabama

Ray Lewis is nearing the end of his Hall Of Fame career and the Ravens don’t have much depth at ILB. Hightower is a pretty good fit for the Ravens D. He plays the hard-hitting and aggressive style hat has become synonymous with Ravens football. He is a decent blitzer from the inside and has the size and strength to take on NFL linemen.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers – Kelechi Osemele, OG, Iowa State

The Steelers need a lot of help on their OL. Current LG Chris Kemoeatu is unlikely to return in 2012 and RG Ramon Foster hasn’t established himself as a permanent fixture along the line. Osemele would help the Steelers’ mediocre running game, as well as help prevent Ben Roethlisberger from taking a beating game in and game out. If Casey Hampton retires, a NT like Josh Chapman has to be a consideration here.

32. Green Bay Packers – Brandon Thompson, DT, Clemson

The Packers defensive line has struggled a bit this year and could use an infusion of young talent at the 5-technique spot. Thompson is perhaps best suited for the 4-3, but he could fit in Dom Capers’ attacking 1-gap 3-4 scheme. He will remind Green Bay fans of former Packers’ DL Cullen Jenkins in his ability to push the pocket and also help in stuffing the run. This low in the first round, he is a steal.

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