13 Days Til The Draft: Three Up, Three Down
Two weeks from now, we’ll be somewhere in the 2nd or 3rd round. As we approach the big day, here are three prospects on the way up and three on the way down:
Three Up:
1. Chandler Jones – Jones seems to finally be getting media exposure as a potential mid-1st round pick. Part of the increased attention has been due to the lackluster performances of other DE prospects (Quinton Coples, Courntey Upshaw) and the lack of a true pass rush threat in this draft. After Melvin Ingram (who seems to be entrenched as a Top 10 pick), none of the next group of DE’s has established themselves as solid 1st rounders. Coples, Upshaw and Nick Perry still figure to be 1st rounders but they might have been leap-frogged by both Jones and Shea McClellin. Watching Jones closely, it’s tough to understand why he’s below those other guys as a mid-late 1st round option. He gets knocked for an inconsistent first step, but unlike many of the other guys in this draft, Jones can use his big wingspan and power to disengage from blockers and can beat OL either outside or on inside stunts. Furthermore, he’s a sturdy run defender who can plow through contact and make plays on ball-carriers behind the line. He needs some technique work, but he looks like a New York Giants style DL. He will be able to line up all over the formation and be successful.
2. Chase Minnifield – He’s been flying under the radar for months and it’s still tough to figure exactly where Minnifield will get selected. With the red flags surrounding some of the top CB prospects, it’s curious that Minnifield isn’t getting late 1st/early 2nd round consideration. There aren’t many guys in this year’s draft who are as pro ready as he is if you are running a zone defense. He is a good athlete who will be an immediate contributor on special teams and has the quickness and fluidity to play either inside or outside. He doesn’t have superstar upside, which could be why he is getting overlooked, but he has a lot going for him and should make some team very happy in the 2nd round.
3. Brian Quick – The 2012 draft is absolutely loaded at the WR position, especially in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Regardless of what your favorite team likes in a receiver, there is almost sure to be a guy in the 2nd tier of prospects who will fit their needs. While guys like Mohamed Sanu, Kendall Wright, Stephen Hill and Rueben Randle seem to get the most consideration at the end of round 1/early round 2, Brian Quick deserves some serious consideration. A small school guy who needs some (a lot?) of coaching, he is unlikely to get selected in the 1st, but his size and athleticism make him worth a long look at the top of round 2. At nearly 6’4, 220 lbs, running a 4.5 40 yard dash and possessing terrific leaping ability, he has all the tools to be a top NFL WR. Any coach who thinks Quick can learn to run a route tree should be clamoring for this guy after the top WR’s come off the board.
Three Down:
1. Whitney Mercilus – I’m surprised so many are buying into Mercilus’ one year of college production. The success of Jason Pierre-Paul seems to have convinced people that athletic guys with limited experience are worth high value picks. Of course, JPP is the exception more than the rule but his impact with the Giants will get Mercilus drafted half a round earlier than he probably should. Mercilus’ biggest strength is a good first step and the athleticism to beat college OT’s off the snap. He most likely isn’t going to beat NFL quality tackles with pure athleticism like he did last year at Illinois. Unfortunately for Mercilus, he’s not a particularly effective player after contact. He gets stood up too often and can get pushed out of the play by tackles with good footwork and the agility to counter his pass rush. As a run defender, he leaves a lot to be desired. Simply put, if he’s not getting to the QB and pinning his ears back, he isn’t a top pick in this draft. A GM who invests a high pick in Mercilus is gambling that he can add pass rush moves to his repertoire and develop the ability to go through OT’s and not just around them. He’s an interesting prospect, but not one I’d invest a top 40 pick in.
2. Courtney Upshaw – For a guy who was briefly considered a top 10 talent (possibly to Buffalo or Miami), Upshaw has probably fallen out of early 1st round consideration. His terrible showing at the combine in linebacker drills has really left him in no-man’s land as a prospect. 3-4 scheme teams are probably not going to want to invest an early pick in a guy who is as stiff as Upshaw showed. As a 4-3 DE, he doesn’t project to be a huge sack guy and run-stuffing DE’s who can chip in a few sacks just aren’t worth 1st round consideration. Don’t be surprised if Upshaw slides down to the end of round 1 or early round 2.
3. Jonathan Martin – Is there a player who has had a worse offseason than Jonathan Martin? From a top 10 consideration to a possible 2nd round pick. The best thing Martin has going for him right now is that other top OT prospects like Mike Adams and Zebrie Sanders have also shown poorly since the end of the college football regular season. At this point, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Martin drop out of round 1.
17 Days Until The Draft: More Random Draft Musings
Two and a half weeks to go and at this point there isn’t much news to report. 90% of news that you read between now and April will either be a fabrication (either by team sources blowing smoke or by “experts” looking to generate clicks/views). Almost all prospects have been graded, watched endlessly on tape, dissected, worked out, run through medical tests and had their character evaluated thoroughly. If you’re a die hard draftnik, or spend your life evaluating talent, your board should be about set by now. With that in mind, here are 17 quick hit musings – one for each day until the draft:
1. Running back David Wilson might have tantalizing athleticism, but don’t confuse him for a 3-down back just yet. He has a long way to go in pass protection and route running before any team uses him in obvious passing situations.
2. I previously mentioned Boise State’s Shea McClellin and Doug Martin as possible late 1st rounders who are flying under the radar (though NFL Network featured both as potential 1st rounders last week, so I guess the cat is out of the bag on these guys). Their teammate, Billy Winn, could be the best of the trio if he lands in the right scheme. Winn is a well-balanced 4-3 3-technique who could play 5-technique in a 1-gap attacking scheme. I don’t like him quite as much for a 2-gap scheme, he’s probably stout enough to anchor in the run game, but he’s just a bit undersized compared to what the (few) remaining 2-gap 3-4 defenses like in their 5-technique DE’s. With the prevalence of 3-4 schemes, I doubt Winn gets out of the top 50 picks.
3. Cincinnati DE/DT Derek Wolfe looks like a 2nd rounder who is a bit tough to project to an NFL scheme. He has the length to succeed as a 2-gap DE but his weight fluctuations this offseason have been borderline alarming. Somehow, he managed to lose 15 lbs between the Combine and his pro day. If he can bulk up, and stay bulked up, he could be a solid contributor in the NFL but he will have to get by on effort more than athletic ability. He appears to be a better rotational/backup type than a long-term starter.
4. Coby Fleener is being touted as a potential first round prospect, and it’s understandable to some degree. He projects as a quality receiver who can do enough in the blocking game to be a full-time player. That said, guys like Fleener remind us how rare Rob Gronkowski is. One would have to think that a TE with Gronkowski’s physical tools, blocking ability and hands would be a sure-fire top 15 pick this year.
5. Dontari Poe seems to have fallen out of favor of some lately. With good coaching, he could be an absolutely dominant player for a long time. That said, it’s tough to teach instincts and Poe seems to really lack them. Any GM that talks himself into drafting Poe is doing so with the hope that the massive DT’s lack of awareness is a matter of being raw rather than a fundamental lack of football IQ. Drafting guys with questionable instincts is a good way to ensure you don’t stay employed long in an NFL front office. GM’s on the hot seat would be best served to stay away from Dontari Poe.
6. It’s curious that 3 months ago, when NFL mock draft season began in earnest, UNC LB Zach Brown was being mocked to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the #4 pick. With less than 3 weeks to go, most mocks have Brown being available when the Bucs come on the clock in the 2nd round. While Brown didn’t blow people away at the Combine the way some thought he might, he hasn’t done anything this offseason to warrant such a wild swing in opinion. If you liked Brown in January, it’s tough not to like him now. If you saw him (like Poe) as a guy without the mental tools to make in the NFL a few months ago, he should still be off your radar. I still think he is worth a 1st rounder, though not in the top half of the round.
7. I’m surprised that more teams don’t take shots on mid/late round QB’s. While these guys almost never work out, it’s much tougher to find a “hidden gem” QB on the waiver wire than it is to find career backups and special teamers – which is what most 3rd-7th round non-QB’s turn out to be.
8. If there is a “WTF” moment of the 1st round, I expect it will involve a linebacker. One name to keep in mind: Mychal Kendricks. Few players have seen as meteoric of a rise in their draft as he has. The incredibly weak LB crop has convinced some people that Kendricks is worth a top 40 pick. Kendricks is often being projected to an inside spot, but his lack of size leads me to think that his best spot could be WILL in a 4-3 scheme. Drafting him as a MIKE in the top 50 picks would be a mistake in my book.
9. A guy who will go earlier than you might think: Bobby Massie. Don’t be surprised if he is the 4th OT, maybe even the 3rd, off the board. He has late 1st round value and could be a steal in the early 2nd round if he lasts that far.
10. You might have never heard of him but University of Regina DT Akiem Hicks could be a guy we are all talking about as a huge steal 5 years from now. He has a lot working against him – off field issues, poor level of competition, sloppy technique – however, he flashes game-changing ability. From a purely “tools” standpoint, there isn’t much difference between Hicks and Poe. At 6’5 325 and with an explosive burst off the snap, Hicks could be a dominant player in the league if he lands in a situation with a strong defensive coaching staff and veteran leadership.
22 Days Until The Draft: 3 Players Who Will Go Earlier Than You Think
Just over three weeks until the 2012 NFL Draft and if you’re like me, you’re probably finishing up the touches on your draft board (or spreadsheet). Before you finish up your rankings though, here are 3 prospects who will probably go before you expect them to:
1. Shea McClellin – DE/OLB – Boise State – Tony Pauline already tipped a lot of folks off about McClellin’s first day chances and I am expecting the versatile edge player to come off the board before the Patriots make their 2nd selection (31st overall). The spread of sub-package heavy defenses – many teams play sub upwards of 65% of the time – make versatile pass rushers like McClellin a hot commodity. However, the reason he will go higher than you expect is not his ability to get to the QB but his ability to drop into coverage that he displayed at the Senior Bowl. With “move” tight ends becoming an increasing trend in NFL offenses, defensive coordinators will love McClellin’s coverage potential. He’s not the most experienced coverage LB, and he definitely needs some technique refinement, but he flashes good hips and footwork. He will draw comparisons to a lot of edge players (both past and present) but the guy he reminds me a bit of is Tedy Bruschi. Like the former Patriots LB, McClellin is a guy who can line up all over the field but will probably start his career as a situational edge player – playing both standing up and with his hand down. Also similar to Bruschi, I see McClellin as a long-term “tweener” between ILB and OLB in a 3-4 alignment whose college passrushing will never quite translate to the pros. He’ll probably top out around 5-6 sacks but be immensely valuable as a jack of all trades in a team’s front 7.
2. Doug Martin – RB – Boise State – McClellin’s teammate at college, Martin is the 2nd back on my board. That’s not to say he has the 2nd highest (behind Trent Richardson) upside. Martin doesn’t strike me as a truly elite back who will rack up All Pro or Pro Bowl appearances. However, what he lacks in flash and ceiling he makes up for in versatility and completeness. No other back, outside of Richardson, has as well rounded of a skill set as Martin. Unlike some other 2nd tier RB’s, Martin has good hands out of the backfield and can hold up in pass protection. Similarly, while other 2nd tier RB’s might have better 40 yard times, Martin’s vision is amongst the best in this class. While a late 1st round pick is probably too rich for a back like Martin, it wouldn’t surprise me if some team trades up from the early 2nd round to get him. Worst case scenario, I don’t see him getting past the early stages of round 2.
3. Marvin Jones – WR – Cal – This year’s draft is positively loaded with 2nd tier WR’s. There could be a nearly unprecedented number of receivers come off the board in rounds 2 and 3. One guy who is getting lost in the shuffle a bit is Marvin Jones. He’s not the best physical specimen, a bit wiry in frame, but he has an excellent (and underrated) NFL skill set. He comes from a pro style offense and has can run option routes – something many young receivers need time to learn. His hands are amongst the best in the draft and he runs fairly clean routes, coming in and out of his breaks with the crispness needed to separate from NFL defenders. He isn’t without flaws obviously, and his lack of strength could really hurt his chances of playing on the outside in the NFL. However, as a slot receiver or in a spread style offense, he could be a dangerous threat on short passes and quick slants. He’s not afraid to take a shot over the middle and can hang on the ball even after a big hit. He also has the speed to slip get behind a defense if they don’t jam him at the line. A team like the Patriots or Packers would probably love to grab Jones in round 3, but he will be gone by the time the end of that round comes along. I expect him to be a top 75 pick who could go as early as late round 2.
28 Days Until The Draft: Random Draft Musings
1. Tony Pauline recently noted that Shea McClellin could sneak into the end of round 1 to the Patriots or Packers (among others). It wouldn’t surprise me – after all, he fits what those teams need and look for in an OLB. He strikes me as the type of player whose upside is “consistently good, reliable starter” and not “game changing playmaker”. Those are the types of guys who seem great in a retrospective look at the draft years later but in the moment, it’s a tough sell if you think his upside is limited.
2. Mike Mayock has recently made news in draft circles for declaring Stephon Gilmore as the 2nd best CB in the draft and a potential top 10 pick. Mayock’s prediction about Gilmore’s NFL ability will probably only come true if Dre Kirkpatrick moves to safety and Janoris Jenkins can’t stay clean off the field. Gilmore needs a lot of coaching and technique refinement before he’s ready to be a quality NFL player.
3. Looking at the back portion of the draft, the three teams I feel have the most to gain from hitting a homerun (so to speak) in this draft are the Packers, Patriots and Texans. That’s not to say that other teams can’t improve themselves or turn themselves into legitimate Super Bowl contenders by adding a quality player or two – but those three teams each have a big hole or two and a game changing type talent could be the final piece of the puzzle. The Pats and Packers need an impact front 7 type and the Texans need a #2 WR to take some pressure off Andre Johnson.
4. I know Ryan Kalil is the fashionable pick for the Vikings at #3 (and I mock him there myself) but I’m starting to think the Vikings will have the first surprise of Day 1 by either selecting Justin Blackmon or trading the pick to a team who covets Ryan Tannehill.
5. Stephen Hill has to be in the top 3 most “boom or bust” players of this draft. He is either going to be a matchup nightmare and enjoy a Pro Bowl caliber career, or he will be out of the league by 2015. There doesn’t seem to be much middle ground.
6. Most mock drafts have stuck with projecting only one 1st round RB (Trent Richardson). If there is a 2nd to go, my money’s on Doug Martin via a late trade up to pick #27-32 from a team drafting early in round 2.
7. The closer to the draft we get, the more muddled the 2nd tier of WR’s is becoming. None of the early favorites for #3 WR off the board have established themselves (Alshon Jeffery, Rueben Randle, Mohamed Sanu, Dwight Jones, Kendall Wright).
8. Speaking of Alshon Jeffery, as good as he looked in his workout yesterday, what are the chances he stays that motivated in the pros?
9. Amini Silatolu – like Martin and McClellin, he’s another guy I could see sneaking into the end of round 1.
10. The Dolphins need to get a QB in this draft. Matt Moore is probably good enough to get them into 7-9 win territory. Good luck getting a franchise QB next year with that type of record – it’s possible, but not an enviable position. If they think there’s even a 50% chance Tannehill is a franchise type prospect, they should pull the trigger.
11. Dont’a Hightower has seemingly fallen off the map when it comes to 1st round consideration but my money’s on him going to one of the 2011 playoff teams at the end of round 1. If he makes it to round 2, he won’t last long.
12. Dontari Poe has some of the worst awareness I’ve seen for a top 10 consideration. His size and athleticism are tempting but he looks completely lost a lot of the time – against inferior competition no less.