Training camp is less than a month away and for the draft class of 2009, it’s now or never. The general wisdom is that draft picks get 3 years to establish themselves (though many picks get far less time, if they’re taken outside of the top 2 rounds or happen to get drafted by a team who doesn’t mind cutting high picks early). After 3 years, if a 1st or 2nd rounder hasn’t panned out, they become a training camp casualty. Sometimes a team can find a trade partner who is willing to take on a former high pick for the cost of a very low or conditional draft pick. Such was the case with 2009 4th overall pick Aaron Curry. The former “safest pick in the draft” was unloaded by Seattle after just 35 games and less than 3 full seasons.
Curry isn’t alone in being cast aside as an early 2009 draft pick. Here are some other high picks who have already been dumped:
11th overall – LB Aaron Maybin (Buffalo Bills)
36th overall – WR Brian Robiskie (Cleveland Browns)
37th overall – CB Alphonso Smith (Denver Broncos)
41st overall – CB Darius Butler (New England Patriots)
43rd overall – DE Everette Brown (Carolina Panthers)
44th overall – QB Pat White (Miami Dolphins)
48th overall – DB Darcel McBath (Denver Broncos)
52nd overall – LB David Veikune (Cleveland Browns)
63rd overall – LB Cody Brown (Arizona Cardinals)
64th overall – TE Richard Quinn (Denver Broncos)
11 of the top 64 players have already exited the league or changed teams, and chances are good that there will be at least 10 more guys in that category by the time 53 man rosters are set in early September. Here are some guys who could be joining the list:
2nd overall – OT Jason Smith (St. Louis Rams) – He hasn’t locked down a starting spot on either side of the line and has been inconsistent at best. It would be a mild surprise to see him let go, but Jeff Fisher and Les Snead have no connection to the drafting of Smith and might decide to move on.
12th overall – RB Knowshon Moreno (Denver Broncos) – The Broncos have already jettisoned 3 Top 64 picks from 2009 and Moreno should make 4. While he has some redeeming qualities, notably his above average blitz blocking, he has shown that he’s a total dud as a feature back. At best, he’s a 3rd down back and rotational guy and one would think his time in Denver is short.
16th overall – OLB Larry English (San Diego Chargers) – Drafted as a pass rushing specialist, he has just 7 sacks in 3 seasons. With the addition of 2012 first round pick Melvin Ingram, the Chargers are likely ready to move on from English barring a superb training camp.
23rd overall – OT Michael Oher (Baltimore Ravens) – While he is the only 2009 1st rounder to have a Hollywood feature film made about him, Oher has been a big disappointment. At times he flashes the type of talent that made him a 1st round pick. At other times, he looks either disinterested or totally lost. It’s likely he will stick in Baltimore for another year, but he might not be around much longer than that.
24th overall – DT Peria Jerry (Atlanta Falcons) – 6 games started and just 2 sacks in 3 seasons with the Falcons, Jerry faces an uphill battle to make the Atlanta roster. New Defensive Coordinator Mike Nolan hasn’t committed (publicly) to either a 3-4 or a 4-3 scheme, but a 3-4 would almost certainly seal Jerry’s fate in Atlanta. Regardless of scheme, it’s a good possibility that Jerry will be playing elsewhere in 2012.
39th overall – OT Eben Britton (Jacksonville Jaguars) – He’s been hurt a lot early in his career, plying in just 10 games over the last 2 years. When he’s on the field he isn’t anything special. The Jaguars don’t have a ton of depth at the position, so it’s possible that he could stick even with a poor camp. However, he will need to get healthy and show some progress if he wants to stick in the league.
40th overall – DT Ron Brace (New England Patriots) – Brace has been hurt off and on with a number of small injuries and has found himself in coach Bill Belichick’s doghouse at several different points (including being inactive for this year’s Super Bowl). When he’s on the field, he has shown flashes of being a quality 5-technique DE but his inconsistencies and lack of durability have led to him getting passed on the depth chart. Belichick doesn’t keep guys around who don’t produce, and has already pulled the plug on Darius Butler (taken one pick after Brace). It would be a mild surprise if Brace breaks camp with the Patriots.
45th overall – LB Clint Sintim (New York Giants) – Sintim is coming off a torn ACL and has yet to establish himself in New York’s LB corps. He was almost totally nonexistent his first two seasons before tearing his knee up last summer. Some Giants fans remain high on him, but like Britton and Brace, he will need to prove he is both healthy and taking a step forward in order to secure a roster spot.
50th overall – WR Mohamed Massaquoi (Cleveland Browns) -The best thing to happen to Mohammed Massaquoi’s young career is the Browns passing on a WR in the first (or a top WR in free agency) and waiting until the 4th round to address the position. The Cleveland WR depth chart is thin enough for the underwhelming Massaquoi to have plenty of reps and get a long look in camp. While he isn’t terrible, he’s also not lived up to his status as a mid 2nd round pick. He will probably hang on for another year in Cleveland, though he might not have survived this long with a different team.
There are just over 7 weeks until the draft, here’s a quick look at the players selected 50th overall:
# of players selected: 42
# of 50th overall picks to appear in a game in 2011: 8 – Marcus Gilchrist (2011), Javier Arenas (2010), Mohamed Massaquoi (2009), Calais Campbell (2008), Marcus McNeill (2006), Ronald Bartell (2005), Devery Henderson (2004), Dominic Raiola (2001)
Average # of games played: 76
# of players to appear in at least 100 games: 15
# of players to appear in less than 16 games: 10
Most games played: Eddie Robinson (1992), 175
Most passes attempted: Shaun King (1999), 738
Most rushing yards: Ed Marinaro (1972), 1319
Most receptions: Devery Henderson (2004), 223
Most receiving yards: Devery Henderson (2004), 4061
Most sacks: Michael Dean Perry (1988), 61.0
Most interceptions: Bill Simpson (1974), 34
Amongst the more recent #50 overall selections, the San Diego Chargers found two guys who contributed significantly in their first year in Marcus McNeill (2006) and Marcus Gilchrist (2011). The Cardinals found a franchise defensive player in DE Calais Campbell (2008) and the Lions snagged long time starting center Dominic Raiola (2001). Devery Henderson (Saints, 2004) and Chester Pitts (Houston, 2002) have been contributors, each appearing in over 100 games throughout their careers.
Despite those success, the #50 pick has produced a lot of flops as well over the last 15 years: Mohamed Massaquoi (Cleveland, 2009), Chris Henry (Tennessee, 2007), Bruce Nelson (Carolina, 2003), Barrett Green (Detroit, 2000), Shaun King (Tampa Bay, 1999), Mike Logan (Jacksonville, 1997), Patrick Sapp (San Diego, 1996).
Other notable #50 picks include 7 year starting CB Bobby Taylor (Philadelphia, 1995), reliable DT Brenston Buckner (Pittsburgh, 1995) who appeared in 174 games over a 12 year career, 11 year starting LB Eddie Robinson (1992, Houston), 6 time Pro Bowl DT Michael Dean Perry (1988, Cleveland), and long time starters LB Winston Moss (1987, Tampa Bay),G Tom Newberry (Rams, 1986) and DB Bill Simpson (1974, Rams). Germane Crowell (1998, Lions) is perhaps the best example of a “what if” player – looking like a budding superstar before suffering a career altering knee injury.
Among #50 picks who are not currently active in the NFL, the average number of games played was 77 over 6.4 league years. However, those same players averaged only 3.2 seasons of being a full time starter. 4 of the 42 #50 picks since 1970 made the Pro Bowl: Marcus McNeill, Bobby Taylor, Michael Dean Perry and Tom Newberry. Only Perry and Newberry were named to the All Pro team (each made it twice).